Dollar/yen trade idea: how to play the long term trend accelerating higher

Part 1) introduction

VolatilityMarkets suggests trend-inspired trades that capitalize on market trends.

In the short term Dollar/Yen has been negatively accelerating lower. In the long term Dollar/Yen has been accelerating higher. With the long term trend being the stronger of the two, we propose a long trade idea with a one week time horizon.

Part 2) trade idea details

Buy $ 262,504 USD, or 2.63 lots of Dollar/Yen, take profit at ¥ 147.2815 level with 49.97% odds for a $ 1,000 USD gain, stop out at ¥ 146.1633 with 50.0% odds for a $ 1,000 USD loss

Part 3) USD/JPY trend analysis

USDJPY last price was ¥ 146.7223. The long term trend accelerating higher is stronger than the short term trend negatively accelerating lower. This trade goes long when price has been moving higher and accelerating over the past 20 days.

Part 4) USD/JPY value analysis

Over the past 20 days, the USDJPY price increased 15 days and decreased 5 days. For every up day, there were 0.33 down days. The average return on days where the price increased is 0.216% The average return on days where the price decreased is -0.1794% Over the past 20 Days, the price has increased by 0.0236% percent. Over the past 20 days, the average return per day has been 0.0012% percent.

Part 5) USD/JPY Worst/Best case scenario analysis

Within 1 week, our worst case scenario where we are 95% certain that this level won't trade for USDJPY, is $ 1.450905 , and the best case scenario overnight is $ 1.48354 . levels outside of this range are unlikely, but still possible, to trade. We are 50% confident that $ 1.461633 could trade and that $ 1.472815 could trade. These levels are within statistical probability.

Key Takeaways:

• Price today ¥ 146.7223

• Over the past 20 days, the USDJPY price increased 15 days and decreased 5 Days.

• For every up day, there were 0.33 down days.

• The average return on days where the price increased is 0.216%.

• The average return on days where the price decreased is -0.1794%.

• Over the past 20 Days, the price has increased by 0.0236% percent.

• Over the past 20 days, the average return per day has been 0.0012% percent.

• Over the past 20 days, The price has on average been accelerating: 0.0002¥ per day higher.

• Over the last session, the price decreased by -0.0458 ¥.

• Over the last session, the price decreased by -0.0003 %.

• Over the last session, the price decelerated by -0.828¥.