Dollar Index: This 200 day M/A will be crucial

Carol Harmer Charmer Trading

$Index fell sharply yesterday...but held up well just above the 200 day M/A...This comes in at6 98.58 today...We haven't had a lot of movement today...well we wouldn't really until the US opens....

This 200 day M/A will be crucial....if we break this then the $ will come under increasing pressure and we might even be able to say that the $ uptrend is about to end.. Now I know we have seen $ weakness the past few months but we have been thinking it was just possibly a correction....but where can it correct too...well we lost 98.50 and it can correct down to 9630....and that would make the next few weeks even worse for the $...

Monthly charts are not looking too great and as I have said previously. The decline in the $ from 2001 to 2009 has only seen a correction back to just above the 61.8 Fib...This is quite important to long term Hedge funds.. institutions etc....There was no apparent reason the $ Index topped out at 10380....so please...just be aware that trends change...and we could well be looking at a new tred starting which is the resumption of the old long term downtrend....Some traders/analysts do not look back at historical data as I do.. therefore they do miss certain things....

I like to see trend changes...They fascinate me...and although too soon to tell from 10380 to 9865 is quite a move down....so of course you are hearing people say its too low....Do you know.. If I had a $ for every time I had heard this over 35 years I would never have to work again....

Now all the while we can hold above 9850 there is scope for retracement and I can see it going back towards the 100.80/101 area... but I think this is where it will top out...

Author

Carol Harmer

Charmer Trading

Carol Harmer has over 39 years experience of analysing and trading the world's markets and is undoubtedly one of the most respected technical trader in the world today.

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