Dollar Index: This 200 day M/A will be crucial

$Index fell sharply yesterday...but held up well just above the 200 day M/A...This comes in at6 98.58 today...We haven't had a lot of movement today...well we wouldn't really until the US opens....

This 200 day M/A will be crucial....if we break this then the $ will come under increasing pressure and we might even be able to say that the $ uptrend is about to end.. Now I know we have seen $ weakness the past few months but we have been thinking it was just possibly a correction....but where can it correct too...well we lost 98.50 and it can correct down to 9630....and that would make the next few weeks even worse for the $...

Monthly charts are not looking too great and as I have said previously. The decline in the $ from 2001 to 2009 has only seen a correction back to just above the 61.8 Fib...This is quite important to long term Hedge funds.. institutions etc....There was no apparent reason the $ Index topped out at 10380....so please...just be aware that trends change...and we could well be looking at a new tred starting which is the resumption of the old long term downtrend....Some traders/analysts do not look back at historical data as I do.. therefore they do miss certain things....

I like to see trend changes...They fascinate me...and although too soon to tell from 10380 to 9865 is quite a move down....so of course you are hearing people say its too low....Do you know.. If I had a $ for every time I had heard this over 35 years I would never have to work again....

Now all the while we can hold above 9850 there is scope for retracement and I can see it going back towards the 100.80/101 area... but I think this is where it will top out...