Market Review - 02/11/2019   06:53GMT  

Dollar ends mixed after upbeat U.S. data and U.S.-China trade optimism

Although the greenback pared its losses made in Asia and Europe at New York open on upbeat U.S. jobs data, dollar retreated after downbeat U.S. ISM manufacturing data together with U.S.-China trade optimism that phase one trade deal will be completed soon and ended the day mixed against its peers.  
  
Reuters reported U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by 128,000 jobs last month, with manufacturing shedding 36,000 positions - the most since October 2009, the government's survey of establishments showed. Striking workers who do not receive a paycheck during the payrolls survey period are treated as unemployed. The strike by about 46,000 workers at GM plants in Michigan and Kentucky ended last Friday.   
  
The economy created 95,000 more jobs in August and September than previously estimated. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast payrolls rising by only 89,000 jobs in October.  Bloomberg reported the Institute for Supply Management index rose to 48.3 from a 10-year low of 47.8 the prior month, compared with the median projection for 48.9. The report Friday showed three of five components -- new orders, employment and inventories -- rose from September but stayed below 50, the line separating expansion and contraction. The production component sank to a 46.2 in a fourth-straight drop, though that may reflect the impact of the six-week walkout of General Motors workers during the month.  
  
Reuters reported President Donald Trump and U.S. negotiators are "very optimistic" on a trade deal with China, White House advisWhite House adviser Larry Kudlow said on Friday in an interview with Fox Business Network.   Kudlow said Phase One of the deal is not yet completed, but the agriculture chapter is virtually done and the financial services and currency chapters are also almost wrapped up.   
  
Versus the Japanese yen, although dollar briefly edged below Thursday's 107.93 low to a +17-day bottom at 107.90+ in Asian morning and then moved sideways in Europe, price jumped to 108.25 after release of upbeat U.S. jobs data before retreating to 107.93 due to weak U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI. However, the pair earsed intra-day losses and later egded higher to session highs of 108.32 on rising U.S. Treasury yields and stocks, price last traded at 108.17 near the close.  
  
The single currency went through a roller-coaster ride as despite edging up to 1.1166 in Asian morning, then 1.1168 in European morning, price dropped to session lows at 1.1129 at New York open following release of upbeat U.S. jobs data. However, the pair then erased its losses and rallied to 1.1171 on cross-buying in euro together with renewed usd's weakness on poor U.S. data.  
  
The British pound swung wildly on Friday's session. Cable found renewed buying at 1.2927 in Australia and gained to 1.2966 in Asian morning, then to +an intra-day high of 1.2973 in European morning before retreating to 1.2942. The pair then rebounded to 1.2968 at New York open but only to fall to 1.2935 on usd's strength and recovered again to 1.2970. Later, price weakened to session lows of 1.2928 on cross-selling in sterling, especially versus euro.   
  
Reuters reported a renewed rush to stockpile ahead of another aborted Brexit deadline limited losses for British manufacturers last month, though not by enough to prevent a sixth month of contraction, a survey showed on Friday.     
The IHS Markit/CIPS UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 49.6 from 48.3 in September, its highest level since April and topping all forecasts in a Reuters poll of economists that had pointed to a reading of 48.1.   
  
Data to be released this week :  
  
Australia retail sales, ANZ job advertisements, Japan market holiday, France budget balance, Markit manufacturing, Italy Markit manufacturing, Germany Markit manufacturing, EU Markit manufacturing, Sentix index, UK Markit manufacturing and U.S. ISM New York index, durables ex-defense, durable goods, factory orders, durables ex-transport on Monday.  
  
Australia AIG services index, RBA interest rate decision, New Zealand GDT price index, China Caixin services PMI, UK BRC retail sales, Markit services, Italy retail sales, EU producer prices, U.S. international trade, good trade balance, redbook, Markit services PMI, ISM non-manufacturing PMI, JOLTS job opening and Canada trade balance, exports, imports on Tuesday.  
  
New Zealand unemployment rate, Germany Markit services PMI, industrial orders, factory orders, France Markit services PMI, exports, imports, Italy Markit services PMI, EU Markit services PMI, retail sales, UK BBA mortgage application, U.S. MBA mortgages application, labour costs, productivity and Canada Ivey PMI on Wednesday.  
  
Australia AIG construction index, trade balance, imports, exports, UK BOE MPC vote cut, BOE MPC vote hike, BOE MPC vote unchanged, BOE QE total, BOE QE corp bond purchases, Halifax house prices, Germany industrial output, industrial production, Italy retail sales and U.S. initial jobless claims on Thursday.  
  
Japan all household spending, coincident index, leading indicator, Australia housing finance, Swiss unemployment rate, Germany exports, imports, trade balance, current account, China imports, exports, France current account, industrial output, non-farm payrolls, trade balance, imports, exports, Canada house starts, building permits, employment change, unemployment rate and U.S. Michigan consumer sentiment index, wholesale investors, wholesale sales on Friday.  

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