Dollar can weaken further after US government shutdown, based on Elliott Wave structure

Gregor Horvat Wavetraders

Biggest story of the week is the US government shutdown — federal government is officially closed since today, October 1, 2025, because Congress missed the funding deadline. Only essential services (like air traffic control, border security, military operations) continue, while many federal employees are furloughed or working without pay until funding is approved. As a result we are seeing some reversal down on stocks, while dollar is also weakening. Metals will most likely remain attractive, as they usually do in times of uncertainty or risk. Looking at the dollar index, we see a nice reversal through channel support after only an ABC rally from 2025 lows, which means dollar could revisit much lower prices, especially after some rebound here, possibly in subwave 2, with resistance around 98.

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Author

Gregor Horvat

Wavetraders

Experience Grega is based in Slovenia and has been in the Forex market since 2003.

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