Dollar can weaken further after US government shutdown, based on Elliott Wave structure

Gregor Horvat Wavetraders

Biggest story of the week is the US government shutdown — federal government is officially closed since today, October 1, 2025, because Congress missed the funding deadline. Only essential services (like air traffic control, border security, military operations) continue, while many federal employees are furloughed or working without pay until funding is approved. As a result we are seeing some reversal down on stocks, while dollar is also weakening. Metals will most likely remain attractive, as they usually do in times of uncertainty or risk. Looking at the dollar index, we see a nice reversal through channel support after only an ABC rally from 2025 lows, which means dollar could revisit much lower prices, especially after some rebound here, possibly in subwave 2, with resistance around 98.

Get Full Access To Our Premium Elliott Wave Analysis For 14 Days. Click here.

Author

Gregor Horvat

Wavetraders

Experience Grega is based in Slovenia and has been in the Forex market since 2003.

EUR/USD recedes to daily lows near 1.1850

EUR/USD keeps its bearish momentum well in place, slipping back to the area of 1.1850 to hit daily lows on Monday. The pair’s continuation of the leg lower comes amid decent gains in the US Dollar in a context of scarce volatility and thin trade conditions due to the inactivity in the US markets.

GBP/USD resumes the downtrend, back to the low-1.3600s

GBP/USD rapidly leaves behind Friday’s decent advance, refocusing on the downside and retreating to the 1.3630 region at the beginning of the week. In the meantime, the British Pound is expected to remain under the microscope ahead of the release of the key UK labour market report on Tuesday.

Gold looks inconclusive around $5,000

Gold partially fades Friday’s strong recovery, orbiting around the key $5,000 region per troy ounce in a context of humble gains in the Greenback on Monday. Additing to the vacillating mood, trade conditions remain thin amid the observance of the Presidents Day holiday in the US.

Bitcoin consolidates as on-chain data show mixed signals

Bitcoin price has consolidated between $65,700 and $72,000 over the past nine days, with no clear directional bias. US-listed spot ETFs recorded a $359.91 million weekly outflow, marking the fourth consecutive week of withdrawals.

The week ahead: Key inflation readings and why the AI trade could be overdone

It is likely to be a quiet start to the week, with US markets closed on Monday for Presidents Day. European markets are higher across the board and gold is clinging to the $5,000 level after the tamer than expected CPI report in the US reduced haven flows to precious metals.

XRP steadies in narrow range as fund inflows, futures interest rise

Ripple is trading in a narrow range between $1.45 (immediate support) and $1.50 (resistance) at the time of writing on Monday. The remittance token extended its recovery last week, peaking at $1.67 on Sunday from the weekly open at $1.43.