Did Santa Deliver S&P Coal?

The Santa Claus rally in the S&P may be ending. The economic news, released on Valentine's Day, that December retail sales fell 1.2% in December stopped the Santa Claus rally in its tracks. It was the biggest plunge in nine years. Seems that Santa was delivering lumps of coal. 

This chart shows the S&P since its Fireball Top in September, 2018. From that top, the S&P declined in 7 moves into a low on December 26th. This completed a down Chaos Clamshell. The decline was 635 points in 96 days. That is about 1.75 (7/4) circles of 360 in 1/4 of a year. 

Since that low, the Santa Claus rally has moved up 446 points in 50 days so far. That is about 3/2 of a circle in price, and 1/7 of a year in time. My ZD36 energy forecast is suggesting a top near the 21st of February, but a turn can come early. In December, ZD36 was suggesting a low near December 31st, but it came 5 days earlier. 

The chart shows a possible 7 moves up in the Santa Claus rally. With Monday being a US holiday, the S&P may hold up into next week. Right now the rainbow (1.5, 3, 6, 12, and 24 days) of EXMA's is mostly up, with only the 1.5 and 3 day turning down. Watch for the possibility that the others turn down next week. Such a downturn would mark the end of the move 2 of 7 in a much larger down Chaos Clamshell. 

You can learn more about Chaos Clamshells in the free course, "Trading The Chaos Clamshell, linked on the Courses page at http://Moneytide.com.

This content was published on Dr. Al Larson's Chaos Clinic which you can attend each Friday for free.
Dr. Al Larson has developed a complete Chaos Model of Markets, four unique courses that let you become a Certified Chaos Trader, some very unique eMylar fractal pattern overlays, and tools that permit forecasting individual stocks and markets years in advance. You can also sign up for a free weekly email, and attend a free Chaos Clinic on Fridays. To learn more, click on the author's profile.
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