Spending monitor: May increase reversed in June

Danske Research Team Danske Bank A/S

Adjusting for seasonality and prices, spending excluding energy fell 2.2% in June compared to May, driven by declines in both retail and service spending. The drop follows a period of volatile months, largely reflecting the effect of spring holidays.

After services spending rebounded in May following a weak start to 2025, June saw a correction back to more modest levels. Some holiday-related spending increased, with hotels and spending on theatres and concerts rising. However, overall real service spending in June remained muted.

In retailing, spending generally slowed across the board in both nominal and real terms. For groceries, nominal spending has been flat throughout 2025, while real spending continues to be dampened as prices increase. DIY stores saw a slight uptick in spending following May's decline, likely driven by seasonal effects.

Overall, June was a month of muted spending, following the surprisingly positive figures in May. The seasonality of the spring holidays has undeniably brought some increased short-term volatility. More broadly, spending in 2025 has been relatively subdued. This aligns with the weak consumer sentiment, which has worsened throughout 2025. Even so, the tailwinds to household finances from rising real incomes and continued strength in both the housing and labour markets appear to have helped mitigate some of the downward pressure from global turmoil and inflation fears, supporting stable consumption levels.

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Author

Danske Research Team

Danske Bank A/S

Research is part of Danske Bank Markets and operate as Danske Bank's research department. The department monitors financial markets and economic trends of relevance to Danske Bank Markets and its clients.

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