Daily Technical Outlook on Major - EUR/USD

Trend Daily Chart
Down

Daily Indicators
Falling

21 HR EMA
1.1287

55 HR EMA
1.1301

Trend Hourly Chart
Down

Hourly Indicators
Oversold

13 HR RSI
34

14 HR DMI
-ve

Daily Analysis
Resumption of recent decline

Resistance
1.1344 - Y'days high
1.1312 - Y'day's European morning low (now res)
1.1291 - Tue's Asian morning high

Support
1.1249 - Intra-day low
1.1216 - 2018 16-month low (Nov)
1.1187 - 61.8% r of 1.0341-1.2555

• EUR/USD - 1.1264... Although euro maintained a firm bias in Asia y'day, following Tue's rally fm 1.1258 to 1.1341, price edged higher to 1.1344 in Asia n retreated to 1.1312 in European morning, then tumbled to 1.1259 near NY close.

• On the bigger picture, despite euro's resumption of LT rise fm 2017 near 14-year bottom of 1.0341 to a fresh 3-year peak of 1.2555 in mid-Feb, subsequent selloff to 1.1301 (Aug), then to a 16-month trough at 1.1216 in mid-Nov confirms said major uptrend has made a top there. As euro has fallen after an erratic rise to an 11-week high of 1.1570 in Jan, y'day's break of 1.1290 signals correction fm 1.1216 has ended n re-test of this key sup is envisaged, break would extend weakness to 1.1187 (61.8% r of 1.1216-1.1570) but reckon 1.1000 should hold. On the upside, only abv 1.1434 would prolong choppy sideways swings abv 1.1216 n risk another rise twd 1.1515 in Mar/Apr.

• Today, euro's intra-day break of Tue's 2-1/2 month low at 1.1258 suggests re-test of 1.1216 is on the cards where a break there would extend MT decline to 1.1187, oversold readings on hourly indicators would prevent steep fall n reckon 1.1140/50 would hold. Only abv 1.1300/10 signals temp. low is made, risks 1.1344.

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