USD/JPY - 113.76.. Dlr pared Fri's decline n staged a recovery to 113.82 on cross-selling in yen, despite pullback to 113.52 in Europe, price climbed to 113. 92 (NY) on broad-based USD's rebound n later moved narrowly in NY afternoon.

On the bigger picture, dlr's fall fm 118.66 (Dec 2016) to 2019 low at 104.46 (Sep) confirms early uptrend fm 2016 29-month bottom at 99.00 has hit a top there. Despite hitting a 3-1/2 year bottom of 101.19 in Mar 2020 on risk-off trades due to COVID-19 pandemic, dlr's rally to 111.71 the same month signals correction over. Despite dlr's erratic fall to 102.60 (Jan 2021), subsequent rise to 116.65 at the start of Jul signals pullback is over n dlr's break of 2020 top at 112.22 top in early Oct to a 3-year peak of 114.69 last week signals LT rise fm 2020 3-1/2 year trough at 101.19 is en route twd 115.51, overbought readings on daily indicators would cap price below 118.66. Only below 113.01 risks 112.07.

Today, although dlr's erratic rise fm Fri's 1-week 113.42 low to 113.92 suggests 1st leg of correction fm Wed's 3-year peak at 114.69 has ended, further sharp rise is unlikely n reckon 114.20/21 (res n 61.8% r of 114.69-113.42 resp.) should cap upside n yield one more fall twd 113.22 later today or Wed.

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AceTrader

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