USD/JPY - 105.03.. Dollar swung wildly in hectic trading on Mon. Despite initial rise fm 105.37 (NZ) to 105.84 in European morning due to cross-selling in yen, price fell on broad-based usd's weakness to 104.99 in NY session.

On the bigger picture, dlr's fall fm 118.66 (Dec 2016) to 2019 low at 104.46 (Sep) confirms early uptrend fm 2016 29-month bottom at 99.00 has hit a top there. Despite hitting a 3-1/2 year bottom of 101.19 in Mar due to risk-off trades on COVID-19 pandemic, dlr's brief but strg rise to 111.71 signals temp. low is in place. Having said that, although the pair ratcheted lower to 102.60 at the start of Jan 2021, subsequent bounce to a 16-week peak at 105.76 in early Feb, then 106.22 Wed suggests gain twd 107.16 (50% r of 111.71-102.60) may be seen, 'bearish divergences' on daily indicators would cap price below 109.84. Only below 104.39/42 signals top is made, risks 103.33.

Today, dlr's decline fm last Wed's 5-month high at 106.22 to 105.25, then Mon's break there to 104.99 suggests recent upmove fm Jan's 102.60 bottom has made a top n as long as 105.62 holds, stronger retrace. twd 104.42 is envisaged but 103.98 should hold. Only abv 105.62 risks 105.84, break, 106.15/20.

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