USD/JPY - 103.83.. Dlr staged a recovery to 103.98 at Asian open on Thur n despite intra-day retreat to 103.72, renewed usd's strength in Europe lifted price to 104.21. Price then weakened to 103.73 (AUS) today on drop in US yields.

On the bigger picture, dlr's fall fm 118.66 (Dec 2016) to 2019 low at 104.46 (Sep) confirms early uptrend fm 2016 29-month bottom at 99.00 has hit a top there. Despite hitting a 3-1/2 year bottom of 101.19 in Mar on risk-off trades due to COVID-19 pandemic, dlr's rise to 111.71 due to broad-based usd's rally signals low has been seen. Having said that, dlr's erratic fall to 104.01 (Sep) indicates correction has possibly ended n weakness to a 7-1/2 month 103.18 trough adds credence to this view n price is en route twd 101.19 later this month. Despite last week's rally to 105.67 (Wed), subsequent fall signals top is in place but a daily close below 103.66 needed for re-test of 103.18, 102.50.

Today, dlr's resumption of decline fm Nov's 105.67 high to 103.66 on Wed suggests correction fm Nov's 103.18 bottom has ended n as long as 104.37 holds, weakness to 103.45/50 is envisaged, 'bullish convergences' on hourly indicators should keep dlr abv 103.18. A daily close abv 104.37 signals low, 104.61, 105.13

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AceTrader

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