EUR/USD - 1.1224. Euro traded narrowly abv Wed's fresh 3-year trough at 1.1187 n edged higher FM 1.1196 (AUS) to 1.1230 in Europe b4 inching lower to 1.1296 in holiday-thin N. American session due to US Thanksgiving holiday.

On the bigger picture, despite euro's LT upmove FM 2017 near 14-year low of 1.0341 to a fresh 3-year peak of 1.2555 in mid-Feb 2018, decline to a near 3-year 1.0637 low (Mar 2020) signals correction has ended. Although euro staged a rally to a near 33-month 1.2349 peaks in early Jan 2021, subsequent selloff to 1.1705 (Mar) signals top is made. Euro's rebound to 1.2266 in May, then break of 1.1705 sup to a 14-month trough of 1.1525 in Oct signals a major top is made. As price has fallen last week after a rally to 1.1692 in post-ECB Thur, Fri's sell-off to 1.1250 would head to 1.1169, oversold readings on daily indicators would keep price abv 1.1008/18 this month. Only abv 1.1434 risks gain to 1.1514.

Today, intra-day rebound would bring sideways swings n abv 1.1230 may risk stronger retracement to 1.1255, however, as hourly oscillators would be in o/bot territory on such move, res at 1.1274 should hold n yield another fall. Below 1.1187 extends downtrend to 1.1169, then two 1.1139 on Mon.

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