USD/JPY - 103.68.. Dlr moved narrowly in Asia n European morning y'day following Mon's gain to a 4-week high of 104.39, price later rebounded to 104.33 in NY b4 tumbling to 103.73 in late NY on usd's broad-based weakness.

On the bigger picture, dlr's fall fm 118.66 (Dec 2016) to 2019 low at 104.46 (Sep) confirms early uptrend fm 2016 29-month bottom at 99.00 has hit a top there. Despite hitting a 3-1/2 year bottom of 101.19 in Mar on risk-off trades due to COVID-19 pandemic, dlr's brief but strg rise to 111.71 signals temp. low has been seen. Having said that, dlr's erratic fall to 103.18 in Nov , then 102.60 last week indicates correction has ended n price is en route twd 101.19 later this month. On the upside, only a daily close abv 104.75 prolongs choppy sideways swings, then risk is seen for gain to 105.67 but only a break there is needed to abort bearishness on dlr n yield upmove to 106.25/35.

Today, as y'day's selloff to 103.73 signals upmove fm Jan's 9-1/2 month bottom at 102.60 has made a temp. top at 104.39 Mon n retrace. to 103.28 (61.8%) would be seen, however, as hourly oscillators would be in o/sold territory, reckon 102.95/00 should hold. Only abv 104.08/10 brings re-test of 104.39.

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AceTrader Team

AceTrader

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