EUR/USD - 1.0260

Despite euro's rally above previous August's 1.0293 high to a 5-week peak of 1.0368 (Wednesday), subsequent strong retreat to 1.0276 (Thursday) and then Friday's selloff to 1.0239 in New York on cross-selling in euro and broad-based usd's rebound signals medium term rise from July's 20-year bottom at 0.9953 has possibly formed a top and below 1.0190 would head towards 1.0160.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.0306 would risk stronger gain to 1.0342/47.

Data to be released today

New Zealand NZ PSI, U.K. Rightmove house price, Japan GDP, industrial output, capacity utilization, China GDP, house prices, industrial output, retail sales.
Germany wholesales price index, France market holiday, Italy market holiday, Swiss producer/import price.
U.S. New York Fed manufacturing, NAHJB housing market index, Canada manufacturing sales and wholesale trades on Monday.

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