EUR/USD - 1.1811

Despite Monday's anticipated resumption of recent decline from September's 1-month peak at 1.1908 to a 2-week trough of 1.1771 ahead of New York open, subsequent rebound in New York morning to 1.1817 on broad-based usd's retreat due to falling U.S. Treasury yields suggests said fall has made a temporary low and consolidation is in store.

As long as res at 1.1850 (Friday high) holds, downside bias remains for another decline but reckon 1.1735 would contain weakness. A daily close above 1.0850 signals pullback from 1.1908 has possibly ended and risk would shift to upside for gain to 1.1884/86, then re-test of 1.1908 later this week.

Data to be released on Tuesday:
New Zealand Westpac consumer survey, Australia NAB business conditions, NAB business confidence, house price index, Japan industrial output, capacity utilization.
U.K. claimant count, ILO unemployment rate, employment change, average weekly earnings, Swiss producer/import price.
Canada leading index, manufacturing sales, U.S. CPI and redbook retail sales.

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