Cycle Trading: Weekend report preview

LikesMoney Independent Analyst

The Dollar

The dollar peaked on day 14. It formed a swing high and closed below the 10 day MA the next day to signal the daily cycle decline.

The dollar printed its lowest point on Thursday, day 20, placing it in the early part of its timing band for a daily cycle low. While the dollar did form a swing low on Friday, it remained contained by the declining 10 day MA. Rejection by the 10 DMA would continue the daily cycle decline. Currently, the dollar is in a daily downtrend. A break below the previous daily cycle low of 65.70 will form another failed daily cycle. And with Friday being only day 21, the dollar could trend lower for another 2 to 3 weeks before printing its daily cycle low.

Stocks

Stocks broke above the 3150 resistance level on Monday and then coiled above the resistance level this week.

This allowed the 10 day MA to catch up to price on Thursday. On Friday, stocks formed a bullish reversal and closed above the coil. Stocks formed a swing low on Friday to close at a new daily cycle high. We will use Friday’s swing to construct an accelerated daily cycle trend line. The new high on day 18 begins to shift the odds towards a right translated daily cycle formation. Which means it is likely that stocks will need one more daily cycle , following this one, to usher in the intermediate cycle decline. Stocks are in a daily uptrend. They will remain in their daily uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

Author

LikesMoney

Independent Analyst

Assets (such as stocks, gold, and the dollar) have identifiable cycles.

EUR/USD hits two-day highs near 1.1820

EUR/USD picks up pace and reaches two-day tops around 1.1820 at the end of the week. The pair’s move higher comes on the back of renewed weakness in the US Dollar amid growing talk that the Fed could deliver an interest rate cut as early as March. On the docket, the flash US Consumer Sentiment improves to 57.3 in February.

GBP/USD reclaims 1.3600 and above

GBP/USD reverses two straight days of losses, surpassing the key 1.3600 yardstick on Friday. Cable’s rebound comes as the Greenback slips away from two-week highs in response to some profit-taking mood and speculation of Fed rate cuts. In addition, hawkish comments from the BoE’s Pill are also collaborating with the quid’s improvement.

Gold climbs further, focus is back to 45,000

Gold regains upside traction and surpasses the $4,900 mark per troy ounce at the end of the week, shifting its attention to the critical $5,000 region. The move reflects a shift in risk sentiment, driving flows back towards traditional safe haven assets and supporting the yellow metal.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP rebound amid risk-off, $2.6 billion liquidation wave

Bitcoin edges up above $65,000 at the time of writing on Friday, as dust from the recent macro-triggered sell-off settles. The leading altcoin, Ethereum, hovers above $1,900, but resistance at $2,000 caps the upside. Meanwhile, Ripple has recorded the largest intraday jump among the three assets, up over 10% to $1.35.

Three scenarios for Japanese Yen ahead of snap election

The latest polls point to a dominant win for the ruling bloc at the upcoming Japanese snap election. The larger Sanae Takaichi’s mandate, the more investors fear faster implementation of tax cuts and spending plans.

XRP rally extends as modest ETF inflows support recovery

Ripple is accelerating its recovery, trading above $1.36 at the time of writing on Friday, as investors adjust their positions following a turbulent week in the broader crypto market. The remittance token is up over 21% from its intraday low of $1.12.