Cycle Trading: Weekend Report Preview

LikesMoney Independent Analyst

The Dollar

The dollar formed a bearish reversal on Thursday.

The dollar delivered bearish follow through by forming a swing high and closing below the 10 day MA on Friday to signal the daily cycle decline. The peak on day 8 indicates a left translated daily cycle formation which sets the dollar up for an intermediate cycle decline. Currently the dollar is in a daily uptrend and will remain so until it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

Stocks

The Transports, the Banks, the Nasdaq and the Russell all printed lower lows on Thursday.

However the S&P has not printed a lower low.

As we will see on the weekly chart, stocks are in its timing band for an intermediate cycle low. Stocks have formed a weekly swing high and closed below the 10 week MA which signals that the intermediate cycle decline has begun.

What is clear is that day 45 is the lowest point following the day 37 peak. A break above the declining trend line would confirm day 45 as the daily cycle low. But a break below the day 45 low of 2820.12 would extend the daily cycle decline. Stocks have begun a daily downtrend and will continue in its daily downtrend until it can close back above the upper daily cycle band.

Author

LikesMoney

Independent Analyst

Assets (such as stocks, gold, and the dollar) have identifiable cycles.

EUR/USD hits two-day highs near 1.1820

EUR/USD picks up pace and reaches two-day tops around 1.1820 at the end of the week. The pair’s move higher comes on the back of renewed weakness in the US Dollar amid growing talk that the Fed could deliver an interest rate cut as early as March. On the docket, the flash US Consumer Sentiment improves to 57.3 in February.

GBP/USD reclaims 1.3600 and above

GBP/USD reverses two straight days of losses, surpassing the key 1.3600 yardstick on Friday. Cable’s rebound comes as the Greenback slips away from two-week highs in response to some profit-taking mood and speculation of Fed rate cuts. In addition, hawkish comments from the BoE’s Pill are also collaborating with the quid’s improvement.

Gold climbs further, focus is back to 45,000

Gold regains upside traction and surpasses the $4,900 mark per troy ounce at the end of the week, shifting its attention to the critical $5,000 region. The move reflects a shift in risk sentiment, driving flows back towards traditional safe haven assets and supporting the yellow metal.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP rebound amid risk-off, $2.6 billion liquidation wave

Bitcoin edges up above $65,000 at the time of writing on Friday, as dust from the recent macro-triggered sell-off settles. The leading altcoin, Ethereum, hovers above $1,900, but resistance at $2,000 caps the upside. Meanwhile, Ripple has recorded the largest intraday jump among the three assets, up over 10% to $1.35.

Three scenarios for Japanese Yen ahead of snap election

The latest polls point to a dominant win for the ruling bloc at the upcoming Japanese snap election. The larger Sanae Takaichi’s mandate, the more investors fear faster implementation of tax cuts and spending plans.

XRP rally extends as modest ETF inflows support recovery

Ripple is accelerating its recovery, trading above $1.36 at the time of writing on Friday, as investors adjust their positions following a turbulent week in the broader crypto market. The remittance token is up over 21% from its intraday low of $1.12.