Cycle Trading: The Weekend Report Preview

LikesMoney Independent Analyst

The Dollar

The dollar closed above the upper daily cycle band on Friday.

The dollar broke below its previous daily cycle low to print its lowest point on day 11. Breaking below the previous daily cycle low forms a failed daily cycle. 11 days is too early for a daily cycle low to form. But closing above the upper daily cycle band signals that the intermediate cycle low has been set -- which indicates that day 11 was the daily cycle low. Since a cycle cannot fail then go on to make a new high, a break above the 97.41 would form a high daily cycle high which would have us label day 11 as the DCL. Closing above the upper dialy cycle band signals an end to the daily downtrend and the start of a new daily uptrend.

Stocks

Stocks printed a new daily cycle high on Friday.

Friday was day 31 for the daily cycle. That places stocks in their timing band for a daily cycle low. There are bearish divergences developing on the oscillators, which often precede a cycle decline. A swing high and a break below the daily cycle trend line will signal the daily cycle decline. The new high on Friday locks in a right translated daily cycle formation which aligns with stocks begin in a daily uptrend. Stocks will remain in their daily uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

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LikesMoney

Independent Analyst

Assets (such as stocks, gold, and the dollar) have identifiable cycles.

EUR/USD hits two-day highs near 1.1820

EUR/USD picks up pace and reaches two-day tops around 1.1820 at the end of the week. The pair’s move higher comes on the back of renewed weakness in the US Dollar amid growing talk that the Fed could deliver an interest rate cut as early as March. On the docket, the flash US Consumer Sentiment improves to 57.3 in February.

GBP/USD reclaims 1.3600 and above

GBP/USD reverses two straight days of losses, surpassing the key 1.3600 yardstick on Friday. Cable’s rebound comes as the Greenback slips away from two-week highs in response to some profit-taking mood and speculation of Fed rate cuts. In addition, hawkish comments from the BoE’s Pill are also collaborating with the quid’s improvement.

Gold climbs further, focus is back to 45,000

Gold regains upside traction and surpasses the $4,900 mark per troy ounce at the end of the week, shifting its attention to the critical $5,000 region. The move reflects a shift in risk sentiment, driving flows back towards traditional safe haven assets and supporting the yellow metal.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP rebound amid risk-off, $2.6 billion liquidation wave

Bitcoin edges up above $65,000 at the time of writing on Friday, as dust from the recent macro-triggered sell-off settles. The leading altcoin, Ethereum, hovers above $1,900, but resistance at $2,000 caps the upside. Meanwhile, Ripple has recorded the largest intraday jump among the three assets, up over 10% to $1.35.

Three scenarios for Japanese Yen ahead of snap election

The latest polls point to a dominant win for the ruling bloc at the upcoming Japanese snap election. The larger Sanae Takaichi’s mandate, the more investors fear faster implementation of tax cuts and spending plans.

XRP rally extends as modest ETF inflows support recovery

Ripple is accelerating its recovery, trading above $1.36 at the time of writing on Friday, as investors adjust their positions following a turbulent week in the broader crypto market. The remittance token is up over 21% from its intraday low of $1.12.