Cycle Trading: The Weekend Report Preview

LikesMoney Independent Analyst

The Dollar

Boom - the dollar closed below the 200 day MA on Friday.

The dollar printed its lowest point on Friday, day 25 to place it in the its timing band for a daily cycle low. The dollar did break below the previous daily cycle low to form a failed daily cycle which confirms the intermediate cycle decline. The dollar is in a daily downtrend and will remain so unless it closes back above the upper daily cycle band.

We will see on the weekly chart that this is week 16 for the intermediate cycle, which is early to expect an ICL. Therefore it it possible to see a swing low and recovery of the 200 day MA next week to signal a new daily cycle.

This was week 16 for the intermediate cycle. The dollar closed below the 10 week MA last week and delivered bearish follow through this week, confirming the intermediate cycle decline. The dollar did find support at the 50 week MA. This support could allow the dollar to begin a new daily cycle. With this only being week 16, there is plenty of time to allow for a left translated daily cycle to form. The dollar is very late in its timing band for a yearly cycle decline. A failed intermediate cycle would confirm the yearly cycle decline. A break below 95.36 forms a failed weekly cycle. The dollar currently is in a weekly uptrend. The dollar will continue in its weekly uptrend unless it closes below the lower weekly cycle band.

Stocks

Stocks closed above the declining trend line on day 6 and then delivered bullish follow through on Tuesday by closing above the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks got a bit stretched above the 10 day MA and will probably need several days to cool off in order to allow the 10 day MA to catch up to price. Closing above the upper daly cycle band ends the daily downtrend and begins a daily uptrend.

Stocks formed a weekly swing low the previous week then closed higher this past week. Closing higher this week keeps the triangle weekly consolidation pattern valid which sets the stage that week 17 was the intermediate cycle low. A close above the upper stem of the triangle consolidation would confirm the new intermediate cycle. Currently, stocks are in a weekly uptrend. They will remain in its weekly uptrend unless it closes below the lower weekly cycle band.

Author

LikesMoney

Independent Analyst

Assets (such as stocks, gold, and the dollar) have identifiable cycles.

EUR/USD hits two-day highs near 1.1820

EUR/USD picks up pace and reaches two-day tops around 1.1820 at the end of the week. The pair’s move higher comes on the back of renewed weakness in the US Dollar amid growing talk that the Fed could deliver an interest rate cut as early as March. On the docket, the flash US Consumer Sentiment improves to 57.3 in February.

GBP/USD reclaims 1.3600 and above

GBP/USD reverses two straight days of losses, surpassing the key 1.3600 yardstick on Friday. Cable’s rebound comes as the Greenback slips away from two-week highs in response to some profit-taking mood and speculation of Fed rate cuts. In addition, hawkish comments from the BoE’s Pill are also collaborating with the quid’s improvement.

Gold climbs further, focus is back to 45,000

Gold regains upside traction and surpasses the $4,900 mark per troy ounce at the end of the week, shifting its attention to the critical $5,000 region. The move reflects a shift in risk sentiment, driving flows back towards traditional safe haven assets and supporting the yellow metal.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP rebound amid risk-off, $2.6 billion liquidation wave

Bitcoin edges up above $65,000 at the time of writing on Friday, as dust from the recent macro-triggered sell-off settles. The leading altcoin, Ethereum, hovers above $1,900, but resistance at $2,000 caps the upside. Meanwhile, Ripple has recorded the largest intraday jump among the three assets, up over 10% to $1.35.

Three scenarios for Japanese Yen ahead of snap election

The latest polls point to a dominant win for the ruling bloc at the upcoming Japanese snap election. The larger Sanae Takaichi’s mandate, the more investors fear faster implementation of tax cuts and spending plans.

XRP rally extends as modest ETF inflows support recovery

Ripple is accelerating its recovery, trading above $1.36 at the time of writing on Friday, as investors adjust their positions following a turbulent week in the broader crypto market. The remittance token is up over 21% from its intraday low of $1.12.