Cycle Trading: The Weekend Report Preview

LikesMoney Independent Analyst

The Dollar

The dollar printed a huge bearish reversal on day 13. That was negated this week.

Despite forming a daily swing high on Monday, the dollar managed to regain the 10 day MA. Then the dollar continued higher into Friday. The new high on Friday, day 18, assures us of a right translated daily cycle formation. The dollar continues to be in daily uptrend. The dollar will remain in its daily uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

The dollar printed a bearish weekly reversal on week 5. The dollar negated the week 5 bearish reversal this week by closing above the week 5 high. This was week 9 for the intermediate dollar cycle. The dollar currently is in a weekly uptrend. The dollar will continue in its weekly uptrend unless it closes below the lower weekly cycle band.

Stocks

The status of the daily cycle clarified on Friday.

The status of the daily cycle had not been since printing the day 44. Stocks began to rally on Tuesday and continued higher into Friday’s close. Stocks closed above the declining trend line on Thursday. Stocks then delivered bullish follow through on Friday and also managed to turn the 10 day MA higher. Therefore we will label day 44 as a DCL. Currently the daily cycle peak occurred on day 6. Stocks will need to break above the day 6 high of 22943.31 in order to right translate the daily cycle. Currently stocks are in a daily downtrend. They will remain in their daily downtrend unless they can close back above the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks closed below the 10 week MA on week 8. And this is now the 4th consecutive week that stocks are completely below the 10 week MA. This is causing the 10 week MA to begin to turn lower, one of our confirmations of the intermediate cycle decline. Stocks are caught between the 10 week MA and the 50 week MA. Unless there is some type of major intervention from the Fed, stocks will likely continue their intermediate cycle decline. Stocks will need to either close above the 10 week MA or below the 50 week MA in order for a trending move to develop. Currently, stocks are in a weekly uptrend. A close below the lower weekly cycle band would end the weekly uptrend and begin a weekly downtrend.

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LikesMoney

Independent Analyst

Assets (such as stocks, gold, and the dollar) have identifiable cycles.

EUR/USD hits two-day highs near 1.1820

EUR/USD picks up pace and reaches two-day tops around 1.1820 at the end of the week. The pair’s move higher comes on the back of renewed weakness in the US Dollar amid growing talk that the Fed could deliver an interest rate cut as early as March. On the docket, the flash US Consumer Sentiment improves to 57.3 in February.

GBP/USD reclaims 1.3600 and above

GBP/USD reverses two straight days of losses, surpassing the key 1.3600 yardstick on Friday. Cable’s rebound comes as the Greenback slips away from two-week highs in response to some profit-taking mood and speculation of Fed rate cuts. In addition, hawkish comments from the BoE’s Pill are also collaborating with the quid’s improvement.

Gold climbs further, focus is back to 45,000

Gold regains upside traction and surpasses the $4,900 mark per troy ounce at the end of the week, shifting its attention to the critical $5,000 region. The move reflects a shift in risk sentiment, driving flows back towards traditional safe haven assets and supporting the yellow metal.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP rebound amid risk-off, $2.6 billion liquidation wave

Bitcoin edges up above $65,000 at the time of writing on Friday, as dust from the recent macro-triggered sell-off settles. The leading altcoin, Ethereum, hovers above $1,900, but resistance at $2,000 caps the upside. Meanwhile, Ripple has recorded the largest intraday jump among the three assets, up over 10% to $1.35.

Three scenarios for Japanese Yen ahead of snap election

The latest polls point to a dominant win for the ruling bloc at the upcoming Japanese snap election. The larger Sanae Takaichi’s mandate, the more investors fear faster implementation of tax cuts and spending plans.

XRP rally extends as modest ETF inflows support recovery

Ripple is accelerating its recovery, trading above $1.36 at the time of writing on Friday, as investors adjust their positions following a turbulent week in the broader crypto market. The remittance token is up over 21% from its intraday low of $1.12.