The Dollar

The dollar printed a huge bearish reversal on day 13.  That was negated this week.



Despite forming a daily swing high on Monday, the dollar managed to regain the 10 day MA. Then the dollar continued higher into Friday.  The new high on Friday, day 18, assures us of a right translated daily cycle formation.  The dollar continues to be in daily uptrend.  The dollar will remain in its daily uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.



The dollar printed a bearish weekly reversal on week 5.  The dollar negated the week 5 bearish reversal this week by closing above the week 5 high.  This was week 9 for the intermediate dollar cycle.   The dollar currently is in a weekly uptrend.  The dollar will continue in its weekly uptrend unless it closes below the lower weekly cycle band.



The status of the daily cycle clarified on Friday.  



The status of the daily cycle had not been since printing the day 44.    Stocks began to rally on Tuesday and continued higher into Friday’s close.  Stocks closed above the declining trend line on Thursday.  Stocks then delivered bullish follow through on Friday and also managed to turn the 10 day MA higher.  Therefore we will label day 44 as a DCL.  Currently the daily cycle peak occurred on day 6.  Stocks will need to break above the day 6 high of 22943.31 in order to right translate the daily cycle. Currently stocks are in a daily downtrend.  They will remain in their daily downtrend unless they can close back above the upper daily cycle band.



Stocks closed below the 10 week MA on week 8.  And this is now the 4th consecutive week that stocks are completely below the 10 week MA.  This is causing the 10 week MA to begin to turn lower, one of our confirmations of the intermediate cycle decline.   Stocks are caught between the 10 week MA and the 50 week MA.  Unless there is some type of major intervention from the Fed, stocks will likely continue their intermediate cycle decline.  Stocks will need to either close above the 10 week MA or below the 50 week MA in order for a trending move to develop.  Currently, stocks are in a weekly uptrend. A close below the lower weekly cycle band would end the weekly uptrend and begin a weekly downtrend.

Note: All information on this page is subject to change. The use of this website constitutes acceptance of our user agreement. Please read our privacy policy and legal disclaimer. Opinions expressed at are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of or its management. Risk Disclosure: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

Analysis feed

Latest Forex Analysis

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD: trade war optimism skews the risk to the upside

The EUR/USD pair has rallied to 1.1062 on Friday, its highest since September 20, as risk-on prevailed heading into the weekend. Reports on progress in trade talks between the US and China.


GBP/USD's rally stalls in the open as weekend headlines highlight Brexit deadlock

GBP/USD is a touch softer in the open on Monday, starting off the week in the consolidation of Friday's upside extension to the highest levels since mid-summer. 


USD/JPY: holding on to gains amid risk-on

The USD/JPY pair jumped to 108.62, its highest since late July, as news that the US and China are progressing toward a trade deal prompted speculative interest away from safe-haven assets. The pair is technically bullish.


China officially invited Lighthizer, Mnuchin and their teams for additional trade talks in China

According to Cristina Alesci, business and politics correspondent for CNN, China has officially invited the United States (US) Trade Representative Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and their teams for additional trade talks in China ahead of next month's APEC summit in Santiago.

Read more

Gold slumps below $1,480 as risk appetite continues to dominate the market

The bearish pressure surrounding the XAU/USD pair on Friday intensified in the last hour as markets continue to price a possible trade deal between the United States (US) and China.

Gold News

Forex Majors