Cycle Trading: Stocks - The Big Picture

Stocks closed above the day 10 MA on Thursday, casting some doubt if day 33 hosted the DCL.  As I have stated previously, I am in the camp that recognizes day 33 as a DCL.  Which would make Thursday - day 20. 

SP

The other scenario does not recognize day 33 as the DCL, which would make Thursday - day 53.  And then we still need to allow for a decline into a daily cycle low.  Allowing 7 to 10 days for decline would take stocks to day 60 or beyond.  Only two of the last 12 daily cycles stretched to 60 days or longer. Which makes the likelihood of a stretched daily cycle - a low probability scenario.  I think that the Fed intervened on day 33 and prevented stocks from declining into a more recognizable DCL. 

The big picture is that stocks are deep in their timing band for an intermediate cycle decline.

SP500

This is week 31 for the intermediate equity cycle. Only 1 weekly cycle in the last 10 weekly cycles stretched past week 31.  Stocks are over due to begin their intermediate cycle decline.  A left translated failed daily cycle usually ushers in the intermediate cycle decline.  Which is why I am in the camp that day 33 hosted a DCL.  A day 33 DCL means that the current daily cycle peaked on day 10 -- which would set this daily cycle up as a left translated daily cycle.

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