Cycle Trading: Stocks - The Big Picture

Stocks closed above the day 10 MA on Thursday, casting some doubt if day 33 hosted the DCL.  As I have stated previously, I am in the camp that recognizes day 33 as a DCL.  Which would make Thursday - day 20. 


The other scenario does not recognize day 33 as the DCL, which would make Thursday - day 53.  And then we still need to allow for a decline into a daily cycle low.  Allowing 7 to 10 days for decline would take stocks to day 60 or beyond.  Only two of the last 12 daily cycles stretched to 60 days or longer. Which makes the likelihood of a stretched daily cycle - a low probability scenario.  I think that the Fed intervened on day 33 and prevented stocks from declining into a more recognizable DCL. 

The big picture is that stocks are deep in their timing band for an intermediate cycle decline.


This is week 31 for the intermediate equity cycle. Only 1 weekly cycle in the last 10 weekly cycles stretched past week 31.  Stocks are over due to begin their intermediate cycle decline.  A left translated failed daily cycle usually ushers in the intermediate cycle decline.  Which is why I am in the camp that day 33 hosted a DCL.  A day 33 DCL means that the current daily cycle peaked on day 10 -- which would set this daily cycle up as a left translated daily cycle.

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