Cycle Trading: Possible Left Translated Bond Cycle

The intermediate bond cycle peaked on week 15 and then formed a weekly swing high that saw bonds break below the weekly trend line to confirm that bonds began their intermediate cycle decline.

The rally over the past 2 weeks has been enough for bonds to form a weekly swing low.  A weekly swing low could indicate a new intermediate cycle but that would mean that bonds printed a 16 week intermediate cycle.  Since the intermediate bond cycle normally runs 18 - 26 weeks, I am suspicious that this 2 week rally in bonds may only be a counter trend rally that will set up the declining weekly trend line.

In order for that to happen then the current daily cycle will need to form as a left translated daily cycle.

Thursday was day 9 for the daily bond cycle.  The new high on day 9 does begin to shift the odds towards a right translated cycle formation.  Bonds would need to have to roll over immediately in order to maintain the possibility of a left translated cycle formation.

Bonds did print an exhaustion candle on Thursday.  A swing high here would signal that bonds were beginning their daily cycle decline.  Bonds did not close above the upper daily cycle band on Thursday.  Since bonds began to close below the lower daily cycle band prior to printing the day 19 low means that bonds had begun a daily downtrend.  So if bonds were to form a swing high then they will remain in their daily downtrend which would likely result in a left translated cycle formation.