Cycle Trading: Miner Update

On Monday we discussed how the Miners had formed a weekly swing low off of support from the 200 week MA to indicate that week 22 was the intermediate cycle low.  The Miners have provided more evidence that week 22 hosted the ICL.

Gold

The Miners have now broke above the declining weekly trend line.  Since week 22 is in the normal timing band for an intermediate cycle low, the declining trend line break provides further confirmation that the Miners are now in week 1 of their new intermediate cycle.

And what I believe is helping the Miners to rally out of an intermediate cycle low is the dollar beginning its final intermediate cycle decline. 

Dollar

The dollar printed its lowest point following the week 9 peak. A brief counter-trend rally followed where the dollar managed to regain the 200 week MA.  However the dollar has now convincingly lost the 200 week MA.  This is week 15 placing the dollar 3 weeks shy of its timing band for an intermediate cycle low.  The dollar needs to break below the week 12 low of 92.43 in order to complete its intermediate cycle decline. And with the dollar declining into its intermediate cycle low, that should help to propel the Miners higher.

 

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