Cycle Trading: Miner Update

The Miners came close to forming a daily swing low on Friday. 

Close, but no cigar ...

The Miners rallied on Friday to gain 1.12% on the day. While the Miners failed to form a daily swing low, they did regain the 50 day MA and close above the lower daily cycle band delivering the first signals that day 52 hosted the daily cycle low. ---

So a swing low has good odds of forming the daily cycle low, which is a buying signal. But there are some signals developing that indicate that the Miners have begun an intermediate cycle decline.

The Miners closed below the lower daily cycle band Thursday and Friday, which signals the start of the intermediate cycle decline. On the weekly chart we can see that the Miners have formed a weekly swing high and delivered a break below the weekly trend line. Both of which indicate that the Miners are in an intermediate cycle decline. And this is before the dollar beings to rally out of its intermediate cycle low.

The dollar printed its lowest point on week 31, placing it deep in its timing band for an ICL.  So while a new daily dollar cycle has begun, the dollar still needs to form a weekly swing low and break above the declining weekly trend line to confirm a new intermediate cycle.  And if the dollar's intermediate rally begins to develop some traction, that will surely send the Miners lower.