Cycle Trading: Miner Bounce

The Miners formed a swing low on Friday then closed above the declining 10 day MA on Tuesday to confirm that this was day 3 for the new daily cycle.

Often extended cycles are balanced by shortened cycles, so it is not out of the question to see a 13 day - daily cycle low form following a 40 day - daily cycle. 

So what the Miners did is print a failed daily cycle low on 2/09.  The day 13 low on 3/01 is  higher low, which signals that not only are the Miners beginning a new daily cycle, but they are also embarking on a new intermediate cycle. 

The status of the intermediate cycle chart is not clear, therefore does not help us determine if the Miners have begun a new intermediate cycle. But if the Miners can close above the 50 day MA and break above the previous daily cycle high of 23.15 then we would be forced to label this low as an intermediate cycle low.  But the status of the intermediate dollar cycle has me thinking that this will only be a miner bounce.

The intermediate dollar cycle is giving us mixed signals.

One the one hand, the dollar has formed a weekly swing low off the week 23 low, placing it in its timing band for an intermediate cycle low.  That and the bullish divergence developing on the weekly TSI signal that the dollar has begun a new intermediate cycle. So if the dollar is rallying out of its intermediate cycle low then that will likely result in the current daily Miner cycle to left translated and continue its intermediate cycle decline.

But if week 23 is not the ICL for the dollar, then the dollar would likely break lower in order to complete it intermediate cycle decline.  And if the dollar needs to complete its intermediate cycle decline that would likely send the Miners higher.