Cycle Trading: Closer To A Top Than A Bottom

LikesMoney Independent Analyst

Stocks broke out a new daily cycle high on Monday.

Monday was day 16 for the daily equity cycle. While stocks broke out to a new daily cycle high there are signs that signal caution. One of the signs that emerge as a cycle nears its peak is the bearish divergence developing on the oscillators.

Another signal is the clustering of Sell on Strength days.

6 of the past 11 trading days stocks have printed a large Selling on Strength numbers. The clustering SOS days often precede a cycle decline.

In the Weekend date we discussed how the previous intermediate cycle was really stretched. And since cycles often balance out, we suspect that this intermediate cycle may be short. Which raises the possibility of that this daily cycle may left translate to begin its intermediate cycle decline.

Big money tends to sell into a breakout to a new high. If stocks print a reversal and break below the daily cycle trend line that would lock in a left translated daily cycle formation and indicate that stocks are beginning their intermediate cycle decline.

Author

LikesMoney

Independent Analyst

Assets (such as stocks, gold, and the dollar) have identifiable cycles.

GBP/USD tumbles to three-day lows around 1.3420

GBP/USD comes under extra selling pressure and revisits the area of multi-day lows near 1.3420 in quite a bearish start to the week. Cable’s decline comes amid the firmer Greenback as investors continue to assess developments in the US-Iran conflict. Moving forward, attention will turn to the UK employment report on Tuesday.

EUR/USD meets some initial contention around 1.1400

EUR/USD keeps the bearish bias well in place, slipping back toward the 1.1400 region, where some initial support appears to have turned up. The auspicious start to the week of the US Dollar has kept the risk complex under pressure as investors has continued to closely follow developments from the Middle East conflict. The release of the ZEW Economic Sentiment in the Euroland and Germany are next on tap on the domestic calendar.

Gold stuck just above $4,000

Gold reverses Friday’s uptick, gyrating around the key $4,000 mark per troy ounce at the beginning of the week. Escalating military action in the Middle East provides some support to the safe-haven metal, although expectations of higher US interest rates bolster the US Dollar and keeps its under the microscope.

Ethereum Price Forecast: BitMine slows ETH accumulation in favor of share buybacks

Ethereum (ETH) is hovering near $1,900 following a drop in accumulation by BitMine Immersion Technologies (BMNR) in favor of $85 million worth of share buybacks and continued recovery in ETH exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Ethereum treasury firm BitMine scooped up 7,430 ETH last week, marking its lowest weekly acquisition since pivoting to a crypto treasury model.

Here's where the Canadian Dollar is headed next: 4 bearish scenarios and a bullish one

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) has ridden a volatile first half of the year, with Oil prices surging and then falling as markets danced to the Middle East’s tune. Neither the Bank of Canada nor the Federal Reserve has changed rates so far this year, and the USD/CAD's next move may depend on which of the two banks fails to deliver what markets expect.

US Dollar mid-year outlook: Exceptional currency, exceptional risks?

The US Dollar enters the second half of 2026 in a markedly different position from a year ago. The King currency has recovered, reflecting persistent US inflation, changing expectations for Fed policy, geopolitical tensions and renewed demand for defensive assets.