Cycle Trading: Bitcoin Uptrend

According to Coindesk, Bitcoin began this year trading at about 1000. The price for Bitcoin went from nearly 20,000 on last Sunday dropping to below 13,000 on Friday.  Surely this is the end for crypto currencies, or is it?

I though that it would be interesting to use our cycle band tool on the Bitcoin ETF, GBTC, to see what that tells us.


GBTC closed above the upper daily cycle band on 10/31 to signal a new daily uptrend.  Remember that once an asset is in a daily uptrend it will continue in its daily uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.  So GBTC continued to rally into its peak on 12/19.

GBTC peaked on 12/19, formed a swing high on Wednesday, 12/20.  Thursday's close below the 10 day MA confirmed the daily cycle decline.


GBTC printed its lowest point on Friday.  The huge bullish reversal that formed eases the parameters for forming a daily swing low.  A break above 2015.00 will form a swing low.  And if a swing does form then GBTC would have printed a low above the lower daily cycle band, therefore remaining in its daily uptrend.  And if it can close back above the upper daily cycle band would then renew the daily uptrend.  And if that happens, then I am afraid that people would think that crypto currencies are bulletproof.  Which would lead to an even more fantastic hyperbolic advance which would end in even a bigger crash than what was witnessed this past week.

Note: All information on this page is subject to change. The use of this website constitutes acceptance of our user agreement. Please read our privacy policy and legal disclaimer. Opinions expressed at are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of or its management. Risk Disclosure: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.