Currency Market: Weekly FX round up

From January 3rd and long term forecasts, the last 4 weeks trade ranges are viewed in relation to significant MA”s to complete a full month. To AUD/USD, GBP/USD and EUR/USD was added 5 year averages.

Overall, EUR/USD was the first currency in August 2020 to break above its 5 year average  at 1.1300's then the 10 year average in December 2020 at 1.2100's. EUR/USD is categorized in the class of a risk asset and non USD currency.

EUR/USD's early break to its 5 year average set remainder 27 currencies on  a course of deep perspective as non USD currency pairs had to not only match EUR/USD's break to significant averages but the 1000 pip rise in GBP/USD, 700 for AUD/USD and other non USD currency pairs traded weekly from overbought to overbought and a non normal price circumstance. EUR/USD's break threw normal price markets deeply off course since August 2020.

Non USD currency pairs such as DXY, USD/CAD, USD/CHF and USD/JPY only option since August 2020 was to concur with EUR/USD and non USD rises by trading deeply oversold week to week and to break 5 and 10 year averages.

DXY for example just broke above its 10 year average at 89.95 and contains a long way to travel to the 5 year average at 95.00's.

Today, markets are ready to slowly embark on a deep 3 and 500 pip correction as currency prices traded to lowest and highest depths of oversold and overbought. This will take time as highlighted in the January 3rd post to long term forecasts because currency prices remain in 3 and 400 pip trading ranges and contained within vital breaks to 5 and 10 year averages. No better time than the present to position for the impending correction.

A correction means a break of 5 and 10 year averages to only trade in new 3 and 400 pip trade ranges as markets and all financial instruments range far more than trend. Consider EUR/USD's 1000 pip rise from 1.1300 to 1.2300 by 166 pips per month for 6 months. The same similarities exist among all currency prices.

The Month highlighted by significant breaks and 5 and 10 year Averages

AUDUSD January 8 to February 14

January 3 - 8: AUD/USD: 5 year average 0.7306 Vs 0.7498 Vs 0.7821 or 323 pips

January 8: 0.7306 Vs 0.7530 Vs 0.7821 or 291 pips and a 32 pip compression to overall ranges.

January 14:  0.7306 Vs 0.7535 Vs 0.7821 or 286 pips and a 5 pip compression from last week and 37 pips overall in 3 weeks.

January 21 to 28: 0.7306 Vs 0.7535 and 0.7821 or no change.

January 28 to Feb 5: 0.7306, 0.7535 and 0.7821 and no change.

Feb 5 to 14: 0.7306, 0.7531 and 0.7821 or no change.

Feb 14 to 19: 0.7306, 0.7565 and 0.7821 or 256 pips and overall compression of 67 pips from January 3 to 8.

Between 0.7565 to 0.7821 are minor trade levels.

Close Prices

January 9th, AUD/USD opened the week at 0.7765 then opened January 16th at 0.7700 or a 65 pip week.

January 16 to 23, AUD/USD opened at 0.7700 to close at 0.7710 for a 10 pip difference.

January 23rd to January 30 AUD opened at 0.7710 Vs close 0.7637 or 73 pips.

January 30 to Feb 5 Aud opened at 0.7637 and closed 0.7675 or 38 pips.

Feb 5 to 14: 0.7675 to current 0.7759 or 84 pips.

EUR/USD Ranges

EUR/USD January 14 Significant MA’s as follows: 1.2119, 1.2020, 1.2038 Vs 1.2630.

From 1.2119 to 1.2630 = 511 pips.

January 8 to 14 : 1.2116, 1.2020, 1.2030 vs 1.2628. From 1.2116 to 1.2628 = 512 pips.

EUR/USD moved 1 pip in 8 trade days.

January 14 to 21 : 1.2113, 1.2020, 1.2034 Vs 1.2627 = 514 pips

EUR/USD gained 3 pips to its overall range in 3 weeks.

Feb 5 to 14 : 1.2020, 1.2016, 1.2110, 1.2626 or 610 pips and a range expansion of 96 pips.

Feb 14 to 19: 5 year average 1.1386, 1.2020, 1.2107 and 1.2624 or 517 pips, 87 pips from 1.2107 to 1.2020 and 634 pips from 1.2020 to 1.1386, mid point at 1.1703.

EUR/USD Weekly Closes

Weekly January 9 to 16, EUR/USD opened at 1.2216 and closed 1.2074 or 142 pips.

January 16 to 23rd: 1.2074 to 1.2169 or 95 pips

January 23 to 30th: 1.2169 to 1.2132 or 37 pips.

January30 to Feb 5: 1.2132 to 1.2048 or 84 pips.

Feb 5 to 14: 1.2048 to 1.2118 or 70 pips.

USD/CAD

USD/CAD January 14 Significant MA’s as follows: 1.2586 Vs 1.2924 and 1.2976. From 1.2586 to 1.2976 = 390 Pips.

January 14 to 23rd: 1.2586, 1.2886 and 1.2976 or 390 pips and no change over 8 trade days.

January 23 to 30 : 1.2586, 1.2886 and 1.2976 or 390 pips and no change.

January 30 to Feb 5: 1.2586, 1.2889 and 1.2976 or 390 pips and no change for January.

Feb 5 to 14: 1.2586, 1.2858 and 1.2976 or 272 pips and 118 pips.

USD/CAD Closes

January 9 to 16: 1.2684 to 1.2736 or 52 pips.

January 16 to 23rd: 1.2736 to 1.2729 or 6 pips.

January 23rd to 30th: 1.2729 to 1.2773 or 44 pips.

January 30 to Feb 5: 1.2773 to 1.2756 or 17 pips.

Feb 5 to 14: 1.2756 to 1.2688 or 68 pips.

GBP/USD Ranges

GBP/USD January 14 Significant MA’s as follows: 1.3351 and 1.3360 Vs 1.3832 or 481 pips from 1.3832 to 1.3551.

January 8 to 16: 1.3408 and 1.3360 to 1.3832. From 1.3832 to 1.3408 = 424 pips and a compression of 57 pips to overall ranges.

January 23 to 31: This week: 1.3448, 1.3360 Vs 1.3832 or 384 pips, a compression of 40 pips from last week and 97 pip in 3 weeks from 481.

January 31 to Feb 5:  1.3360, 1.3477, 1.3832 or 355 pips and a 126 pip range compression.

Feb 5 to 14: 1.3061, 1.3360, 1.3536, 1.3832 and 1.4300. Ranges factor 468 pips, 296, 176 and 299 pips.

GBP/USD Closes

January 9 to 16th: 1.3554 to 1.3575 or 21 pips

January 16 to 23rd: 1.3575 to 1.3671 or 96 pips.

January 23rd to 30th: 1.3671 to 1.3688 or 17 pips.

January 30 to Feb 5: 1.3688 to 1.3727 or 39 pips.

Feb 5 to 14: 1.3727 to 1.3844 or 117 pips.

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY. January 14 Significant MA’s as follows: 139.25 Vs 144.31 and 146.14 or 689 pips from 146.14 to 139.25.

January 23 to 30: 139.76, Vs 144.31 and 146.14 or 689 pips from 139.15 to 146.14 or 638 pips from 146.14 to 139.76.

Bottom average rose by 51 pips to compress ranges by exactly 51 pips.

January 30 to Feb 5: 140.25, 142.66, 144.31 Vs 146.14 or 589 pips and an overall range compression of 100 pips.

Feb 5 to 14: 141.00, 142.54 and 148.25 or 571 pips vs 154 pips from 142.54 to 141.00.

Feb 14: 141.75, 142.46 Vs 148.27 and 150.53

GBP/JPY Closes

anuary 9 to 16: 140.92 to 141.03 or 11 pips.

January 16 to 23rd: 141.03 to 141.95 or 92 pips.

January 23 to 30th: 141.95 to 143.39 or 144 pips.

January 30 to Feb 5: 143.39 to 144.63 or 124 pips.

Feb 5 to 14: 144.63 to 145.34 or 71 pips.

The Week

Week 3 to JPY cross pairs trading at significant overbought levels however all trade near vital breaks higher. EUR/JPY's 14 year average is located at 128.24, AUD/JPY 79.70, NZD/JPY 75.44 and CAD/JPY at 81.45.

The impending break for AUD/JPY at 79.70 and NZD/JPY 75.44 will assist to a deeper correction to AUD/USD and NZD/USD. Watch USD/JPY at 104.72 and trades above while EUR/USD also trades above 1.2030 in a misaligned situation.

GBP/USD and all GBP pairs remain deeply overbought. Problem pairs GBP/CHF and GBP/CAD are slowly expanding ranges over the past 2 weeks and will assist in a lower GBP across the range of GBP pairs.

EUR/GBP sits on its 5 year average at 0.8726 and is deeply oversold. Higher EUR/GBP also confirms a lower GBP.

Watch GBP/NZD this week as it trades above 1.9136 while oversold EUR/NZD trades below 1.7011. GBP/NZD is forecast this week as active moves and ranges comply.

Oversold USD/CAD 1.2858 should break in days ahead. The 5 year average is located 1.3141.

EUR/USD Weekly Trade offered as multiple longs and shorts plus trade levels to watch the trade unfold.

Short 1.2169 and 1.2176 to target 1.2065. Must cross 1.2142, 1.2115, 1.2088 and 1.2075.

Short below 1.2030 to target 1.1947.

Long 1.1947 to target 1.2002.

Cautious long 1.2065 to target 1.2114.