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Currency market: USD/JPY and JGB yield curve

Brian Twomey Brian's Investment

JGB Yield curve actual rates 1 year to 40Y derived from the BOJ for October as follows

-0.11, -0.071, 0.043, 0.096, 0.195, 0.316, 0.369, 0.484, 0.597, 0.683, 0.757, 1.179, 1.50, 1.64, 1.716, 1.84. The 3M at -0.11 was added to cover YCC bands from 3M to 10Y.

Note to 16 interest rates. JGB Yield curve at 16 was derived from the original 15 rates from the ECB beginning in 1999. Eventually cut to 7 then since 2016, slashed to 5 rates.

See Yield Curve Methodologies at btwomey.com to learn how this is done. Takes about 15 minutes.

YCC 3M to 10Y

Above = 149.66, 149.87, 149.95, 150.45, 152.34, 155.80, 157.64, 162.15, 167.17, 171.31, 175.05.

Below = 147.46, 145.98, 145.92, 145.33, 144.41.

Most Vital = 153.48, 152.74.

10Y to 40Y

Above= 198.83, 218.75, 227.78, 240.93.

Below = 143.24, 141.69, 139.49, 138.52, 137.99, 137.13.

The BOJ nor Exporters use the JGB yield curve to trade and factor long term views.

The BOJ For October uses Custom Export and Import Exchange rates to cover the first 4 weeks or 20 days per month to Import and Export.

Imports currently exceed Exports to trade balance numbers.

Here's the Import and Export exchange rates for October: 149.03, 149.25, 149.05, 147.86 = 148.79 average.

October trading Range 144.00 to 149.70

First 20 days October trade Period = 147.27 - 149.75.

Much easier and faster methods exist to trade and profit from USD/JPY and JPY cross pairs rather than employ the JGB Yield Curve.

Author

Brian Twomey

Brian's Investment

Brian Twomey is an independent trader and a prolific writer on trading, having authored over sixty articles in Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities and Investopedia.

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