Currency market – Trade results: 28 currency pairs
A check to weekly trades. EM currencies yesterday all traded a commonality of 200 pips. GBP/AUD, USD/HUF, EUR/AUD, NZD/USD, USD/CNY all hit intended targets perfectly. A few others as well and highlighted below. USD/JPY and JPY cross pairs missed yet the miss was in our favor as shorts entered higher than expected.
What's definitive is the following statements: Interest rates = exchange rates and exchange rates = interest rates. Interest rates -= Statistics. Exchange rates = Statistics. But very few formulas work. Very few central banks allow longer term forecast to exchange rates. Most are perfectly in line with the Fed to only allow a few pips profit for day trades.
The BOJ from the gang that can't shoot straight forecasted USD/JPY's near perfect top and off by 13 pips but the same prediction was exactly matched by Statistics. The difference is USD/JPY's top was known Friday at the close of Japanese markets as was the same forecasts for JPY cross pairs.
Currency trading and other financial market instruments is all about formulas written in stone many, many decades ago. And never to change. The only requirement is a $4 calculator and the profits are guaranteed.
Beside USD/JPY and JPY cross pairs, the forecasts weren't terrible.
After this day, back to the normal profit routine.
Following is the list to Sunday forecasts then actual traded ranges as of this point.
GBP/AUD 1.8476 – 1.8308. Actual 1.8480 – 1.8368. Close enough to perfect.
EUR/AUD 1.6259 – 1.6111. Actual 1.6255 – 1.6147. Close enough to perfect.
AUD/USD 0.6672 – 0.6611. Actual 0.6693 – 0.6633. Top off by 21.
NZD/USD 0.6226 – 0.6199. Actual 0.6237 – 0.6180. Close enough to perfect.
EUR/USD 1.0807 – 1.0708. Actual 1.0833 – 1.0744.
USD/JPY 131.29 – 130.10. Actual 131.74 – 130.48. Off.
GBP/CAD 1.6876 – 1.6723. Actual 1.6839 – 1.6763. Top off by 37, bottom 40 pips to target.
GBP/USD 1.2286 – 1.2172. Actual 1.2329 – 1.2218. top off by 43.
GBP/NZD 1.9789 – 1.9609. Actual 1.9854 – 1.9676.top off by 65.
EUR/NZD 1.7419 – 1.7260. Actual 1.7428 – 1.7409. Top off by 11.
EUR/JPY 141.19 – 139.90. Actual 142.21 – 140.52. Top off 100.
AUD/JPY 87.16 – 86.37. Actual 87.77 – 86.61.
EUR/CAD 1.4845 – 1.4710. Actual 1.4801 – 1.4733, top off by 44.
EUR/GBP 0.8826 – 0.8745. Actual 0.8805 – 0.8770.
USD/CAD 1.3800 – 1.3675. Actual 1.3744 -1.3630, top off 56, Bottom target achieved.
USD/CHF 0.9234 – 0.9150. Actual 0.9199 – 0.9136, top of 35, bottom off 14.
CAD/JPY 95.47 – 94.60. Actual 96.48 – 94.94.
NZD/JPY 81.39 – 80.65. Actual 81.80 – 80.87.
EM
USD/PLN 4.3777 – 4.3379. Actual 4.3623 – 4.3208. Top off by 154, Bottom perfect + extra pips.
USD/SGD 1.3381 – 1.3259. Actual 1.3351 – 1.3277. Top off by 30, bottom off by 18.
USD/CNY 6.8995 – 6.8367. Actual 6.8909 – 6.8729. Top Close enough to Perfect.
USD/RON 4.6018 – 4.5600. Actual 4.5952 – 4.5633. Top off by 66, Bottom off by 33.
USD/DKK 6.9573 – 6.8940. Actual 6.9352 – 6.8773. Top off by 221, Bottom target achieved + extra.
USD/HUF 359.11 – 355.85. Actual 359.38– 354.24. Top off by 27, bottom target achieved + extra.
USD/MYR 4.4482 – 4.4078. Actual 4.4345 – 4.3850, Top off by 37, bottom target achieved + extra.
USD/CZK 22.1042 – 21.9031. Actual 22.1005 – 21.9210, Top off by 37.
Author
Brian Twomey
Brian's Investment
Brian Twomey is an independent trader and a prolific writer on trading, having authored over sixty articles in Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities and Investopedia.
