Currency market: S&P 500 and DXY

Brian Twomey Brian's Investment

Last post to SPX was November/ December and the trade ran as follows: short 4700's , 4600's and target 3800's. Targets as posted 4497.09. then 4268.80, 4032.75, 3859.03. Lows achieved 4122.35 for 500ish points.

The current December - March range is running from 4603.10 to 4122.35 or 480.75 points. September to December ran 4284.68 to 4802.90 or 518 points. Both 3 month ranges are running fairly consisten to historic 300 to 500 ish points to 3 month ranges and matches DXY.

DXY December - March 3 month range runs 472 pips from 94.69 to 99.41 and September to December ran 448 pips from 91.87 to 96.35.

SPX 3 month average currently factors as 4551.94 and a vital number for the next 2 months of trade. DXY 3 momth averages is located at 96.74 and again a most crucial number to the overall DXY price path.

DXY trades dead in tiny ranges and no different than EUR/GBP. The function of DXY is to trade dead in small ranges as DXY serves its overall purpose as a most important anchor currency to every currency on the planet as well as stock markets, Gold and all commodities.

The factor to DXY is the range in relation to every financial instrument and a multiplication problem solved by a calculator. Gold for the past 3 months traded 1776.69 to 2022.54 and 2458 points or DXY X 5. NASDAQ is nigher yet perfect while SPX runs together fairly consistently.

SPX trades a current range from 4392.42 to 3860.75. Above 4392 targets 4468.05, 4551.94 and 4600.65. Below 4392 targets 4219.19, 4184.19, 4032.57. 3989.63 3945.67, 3902.72.

Below 3860.75 targets 3762.21, 3649.79 and 3572.45.

The 5 year average is located at 3198.23. Current SPX at 4200;s is overbought across al averages and trade strategy is short to at least 4032.57 and 3989.63.

DXY is also overbought across all averages and a short only strategy. Targets are located at 98.14, 97.76, 96.73 and 95.86. Final target at 95.86 or 400 pips from current 99.00's translates to EUR/USD 1.1200's and 1.1300.

DXY 5 year average is located at 94.93 and a 12 pip drop from last DXY post about 3 months ago at 95.03. Averages are solid from 95.00's to 94.00's. DXY is best served as a market forecast tool rather than an actively traded financial instrument.

Author

Brian Twomey

Brian's Investment

Brian Twomey is an independent trader and a prolific writer on trading, having authored over sixty articles in Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities and Investopedia.

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