CPI day: Will inflation shock markets? Market outlook ahead Fed cut [Video]

CPI Day is here — but the real story might not be inflation itself.
Markets are bracing for today’s Consumer Price Index report, with expectations pointing to around 2% higher inflation. Yet, with a rate cut already locked in for next week, the market’s reaction may not hinge on the data as much as usual.

Even if inflation runs hot, the Fed’s easing trajectory remains intact — suggesting that the CPI release is unlikely to derail the broader dovish narrative. The real question is how different asset classes position themselves ahead of this policy shift.

CPI – The main focus

• CPI data is expected to rise by about 2% later today
• The Fed’s rate cut next week is still on schedule, meaning today’s data won’t likely trigger another pause
• A higher print could create intraday volatility, but the macro bias remains dovish as cuts are already priced in

The Dollar: Strong Yet Fragile

• The US dollar remains technically firm, supported by short-term flows
• Still, looming rate cuts put it on the edge — any soft CPI print could weigh heavily on the greenback
• DXY structure is key; a break below support could open the door for further weakness into November

US indices: Primed for all-time highs

• Equities are extending their soft-landing and rate-cut optimism
• The Nasdaq and S&P 500 remain poised for new record highs if inflation data doesn’t spark a yield surge
• Market tone stays risk-on, with growth and tech sectors leading momentum

Metals outlook: Gold, Silver, and Copper

• Gold, silver, and copper remain structurally bullish despite mild pullbacks
• Unless a sustained bearish sequence takes hold, the broader uptrend remains valid
• Traders can monitor liquidity sweeps and fair value gap retests for ideal re-entry points

Bottom Line

CPI may move intraday volatility, but the macro path is already set — the Fed is cutting rates next week.
That leaves traders focusing more on how markets react than what the data says.
The dollar stays on edge, indices remain buoyant, and metals continue to hold strong momentum.