Could EUR/USD pivot before parity?

EUR/USD falls to new lows after upbeat US jobs data.
Critical support develops near 1.0200.

Christina Parthenidou XM

EURUSD hit a new two-year low of 1.0200 in the aftermath of a stronger-than-expected nonfarm payrolls report, stirring up concerns that the pair could hit parity soon.

But the bulls may have one more chance to turn things around. The price is currently sitting at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2022-2023 uptrend at 1.0200, and the support line from February 2024 is adding extra credence to the area. Note that the RSI and the stochastic oscillator are approaching their oversold levels, indicating that the recent decline may fade out soon.

Should selling interest strengthen, the price may initially test the 161.8% Fibonacci extension of the latest upturn at 1.0092 before it slumps to 1.0000 (parity). The 0.9900 mark could be the next major level of interest.

In the event of an upside reversal, traders will be keeping an eye on the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) at 1.0370 and the 50% Fibonacci number at 1.0400. Running higher, the pair may instantly lose steam near the tentative resistance trendline at 1.0460, while a continuation above 1.0530 could challenge the area around the 38.2% Fibonacci of 1.0611. A sustainable move above the latter is required to officially violate the negative trend from September.

Summing up, EURUSD is still in a bearish trend with a potential for a pivot near the 1.0200 level. For a shift to a bullish short-term outlook, the pair must run sustainably beyond 1.0600.

Author

Christina Parthenidou

Christina joined Trading Point in May 2017. She holds a master degree in Economics and Business from the Erasmus University Rotterdam with a specialization in International economics.

GBP/USD softens as Fed rate uncertainty supports US Dollar

GBP/USD edges lower after opening at a bullish gap, remaining within positive territory and trading around 1.3290 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The currency pair is under pressure as the US Dollar (USD) stabilizes, driven by market caution ahead of the upcoming Federal Reserve policy decision due on Wednesday.

EUR/USD hangs near monthly low, holds above 1.1350 as USD bulls pause ahead of FOMC meeting

The EUR/USD pair is seen consolidating near the monthly trough and trading just above mid-1.1300s during the Asian session on Tuesday. Traders seem hesitant and await the outcome of a two-day FOMC policy meeting before placing aggressive directional bets.

Gold looks vulnerable as focus shifts to the Fed meeting

Gold is challenging the $4,050 level early Tuesday, extending the pullback from above $4,100, as sellers remain in control ahead of the two-day US Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting, starting later in the day. Gold is in the red for the second consecutive day so far this Tuesday, undermined by the recent demand for the US Dollar.

Senate prepares for potential CLARITY Act floor vote as Republicans work to secure support

Senate Republicans are preparing to advance the CLARITY Act as lawmakers face a narrow window to begin floor proceedings before the August recess. Senate Majority Leader John Thune is expected to move toward filing cloture on the motion to proceed to the bill, according to a Monday report by Eleanor Terrett.

Asian stocks including KOSPI slide as AI doubts hit chipmakers

Asian stocks fall sharply on Tuesday as mounting skepticism over the massive financial returns on artificial intelligence spending triggered a widespread sell-off across global semiconductor shares. The tech-driven downturn rippled from Wall Street into Asian markets, while investors shifted toward safety, driving bond prices higher and sending oil lower.

US Dollar mid-year outlook: Exceptional currency, exceptional risks?

The US Dollar enters the second half of 2026 in a markedly different position from a year ago. The King currency has recovered, reflecting persistent US inflation, changing expectations for Fed policy, geopolitical tensions and renewed demand for defensive assets.