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COT: Record Ownership Profile in RBOB Gasoline

  • Record extreme positioning in RBOB gasoline

  • Position extremes and high volume weeks in U.S. Treasury market

  • Lean hogs ownership profile warns of a price low

52 Week Ownership Profile Extremes – Swiss Franc, 30 Yr. U.S. T-Bond, 10 Yr. U.S. T-Note, 2 Yr. U.S. T-Note, Platinum, Wheat, RBOB, Frozen OJ

13 Week Volume Highs – Euro, Japanese Yen, 30 Yr. U.S. T-Bond, 10 Yr. U.S. T-Note, 5 Yr. U.S. T-Note, 2 Yr. U.S. T-Note, Rough Rice

Chart
Chart

The COT Index is the difference between net speculative positioning and net commercial positioning measured over a 52 week percentile.  A reading of 100 indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 52 weeks with speculators buying and commercials selling.  A reading of 0 indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 52 weeks with speculators selling and commercials buying.  Speculators tend to be on the wrong side at the turn and commercials the correct side. 

Latest CFTC Release dated May 22nd, 2018

Non Commercials (speculators) – Red

Commercials – Blue

Small Speculators – Black

COTDiff (COT Index) – Black

52 week Percentile (COT Diff) – Gray

RBOB NYMEX Continuous Contract

Chart

The ownership profile in RBOB gas is at a record extreme.  Simply, the extreme speculative long position and extreme commercial short position warns of a price top.

Lean Hogs CME Continuous Contract

Lean Hogs

The ownership profile in Lean Hogs is on par with ownership profiles that have marked previous price lows (of varying degree).  Simply, the extreme speculative short position and extreme commercial long position warns of a price low.

Author

Jamie Saettele, CMT

Jamie Saettele, CMT

Scandinavian Capital Markets

Jamie Saettele is Senior Technical Strategist at Scandinavian Capital Markets, a premier broker offering services to institutional clients, fund managers and professional traders around the world.

More from Jamie Saettele, CMT
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