COT: Record Ownership Profile in RBOB Gasoline

Record extreme positioning in RBOB gasoline
Position extremes and high volume weeks in U.S. Treasury market
Lean hogs ownership profile warns of a price low

Jamie Saettele, CMT Scandinavian Capital Markets

52 Week Ownership Profile Extremes – Swiss Franc, 30 Yr. U.S. T-Bond, 10 Yr. U.S. T-Note, 2 Yr. U.S. T-Note, Platinum, Wheat, RBOB, Frozen OJ

13 Week Volume Highs – Euro, Japanese Yen, 30 Yr. U.S. T-Bond, 10 Yr. U.S. T-Note, 5 Yr. U.S. T-Note, 2 Yr. U.S. T-Note, Rough Rice

The COT Index is the difference between net speculative positioning and net commercial positioning measured over a 52 week percentile. A reading of 100 indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 52 weeks with speculators buying and commercials selling. A reading of 0 indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 52 weeks with speculators selling and commercials buying. Speculators tend to be on the wrong side at the turn and commercials the correct side.

Latest CFTC Release dated May 22nd, 2018

Non Commercials (speculators) – Red

Commercials – Blue

Small Speculators – Black

COTDiff (COT Index) – Black

52 week Percentile (COT Diff) – Gray

RBOB NYMEX Continuous Contract

The ownership profile in RBOB gas is at a record extreme. Simply, the extreme speculative long position and extreme commercial short position warns of a price top.

Lean Hogs CME Continuous Contract

The ownership profile in Lean Hogs is on par with ownership profiles that have marked previous price lows (of varying degree). Simply, the extreme speculative short position and extreme commercial long position warns of a price low.

Author

Jamie Saettele, CMT

Scandinavian Capital Markets

Jamie Saettele is Senior Technical Strategist at Scandinavian Capital Markets, a premier broker offering services to institutional clients, fund managers and professional traders around the world.

AUD/USD bulls regain control above 0.6950 amid USD retreat

AUD/USD regains traction and extends the previous day's bounce from the weekly low, aiming for 0.7000 in Asia on Friday. The overnight pullback in US bond yields keeps the US Dollar below an 18-month high, which in turn offers some support to the pair. Meanwhile, hawkish RBA expectations also keep the major underpinned.

USD/JPY holds gains near 158.00 after Japan's weak Household Spending data

USD/JPY clings to gains around 158.00 after data showed on Friday that Japan's Household Spending fell for the ninth straight month, undermining the Japanese Yen. Meanwhile, the US Dollar remains depressed as the overnight fall in US bond yields counters a hawkish Fed and geopolitical uncertainties, could cap any downside in the pair.

Gold remains range-bound below $4,200

Gold has given up some ground after an initial bullish attempt to reach weekly highs, returning to below the $4,200 mark per troy ounce on Friday. The US Dollar’s strong upside momentum, combined with rising US Treasury yields across the curve, seems to keep further gains in the yellow metal under scrutiny.

Has Bitcoin really escaped the macro forces it was built to fight?

Over 17 years ago, Satoshi Nakamoto designed Bitcoin (BTC) on the back of a global financial crisis as an alternative to the global monetary system outside the control of central banks, governments and traditional intermediaries. This raises a key question: has Bitcoin really become independent of the macroeconomic forces it was built to challenge?

The Euro is not the sick man of Europe. France's bond market is

EUR/USD remains under pressure, near the 17-month low of 1.1161 reached on Monday. The pair has lost more than 7% since its yearly peak, as concerns over France's public finances increasingly weigh on the single currency. But behind the weakness of the Euro (EUR), the problem does not necessarily lie with the European economy as a whole.