COT: Record Ownership Profile in Copper

Record positioning in S&P 500
Record positioning in Copper
Specs are still heavily long Wheat

Jamie Saettele, CMT Scandinavian Capital Markets

52 Week Ownership Profile Extremes – Mexican Peso, S&P 500, Copper, Wheat, Rough Rice

13 Week Volume Highs – Silver, Soybean Oil, Wheat, Corn, Frozen OJ

The COT Index is the difference between net speculative positioning and net commercial positioning measured over a 52 week percentile. A reading of 100 indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 52 weeks with speculators buying and commercials selling. A reading of 0 indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 52 weeks with speculators selling and commercials buying. Speculators tend to be on the wrong side at the turn and commercials the correct side.

Latest CFTC Release dated June 12th, 2018

Non Commercials (speculators) – Red

Commercials – Blue

Small Speculators – Black

COTDiff (COT Index) – Black

52 week Percentile (COT Diff) – Gray

S&P 500 CME Continuous Contract

The ownership profile in the S&P 500 is at a record. Simply, the extreme speculative long position and extreme commercial short position warns of a price top.

Copper COMEX Continuous Contract

The ownership profile in Copper is at a record. Simply, the extreme speculative long position and extreme commercial short position warns of a price top. Also, the most recent data reveals extreme 1 and 4 week buying by speculators (see below chart). Extreme 1 week buying can indicate capitulation.

Copper COMEX Continuous Contract

Author

Jamie Saettele, CMT

Scandinavian Capital Markets

Jamie Saettele is Senior Technical Strategist at Scandinavian Capital Markets, a premier broker offering services to institutional clients, fund managers and professional traders around the world.

EUR/USD hits two-day highs near 1.1820

EUR/USD picks up pace and reaches two-day tops around 1.1820 at the end of the week. The pair’s move higher comes on the back of renewed weakness in the US Dollar amid growing talk that the Fed could deliver an interest rate cut as early as March. On the docket, the flash US Consumer Sentiment improves to 57.3 in February.

GBP/USD reclaims 1.3600 and above

GBP/USD reverses two straight days of losses, surpassing the key 1.3600 yardstick on Friday. Cable’s rebound comes as the Greenback slips away from two-week highs in response to some profit-taking mood and speculation of Fed rate cuts. In addition, hawkish comments from the BoE’s Pill are also collaborating with the quid’s improvement.

Gold climbs further, focus is back to 45,000

Gold regains upside traction and surpasses the $4,900 mark per troy ounce at the end of the week, shifting its attention to the critical $5,000 region. The move reflects a shift in risk sentiment, driving flows back towards traditional safe haven assets and supporting the yellow metal.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP rebound amid risk-off, $2.6 billion liquidation wave

Bitcoin edges up above $65,000 at the time of writing on Friday, as dust from the recent macro-triggered sell-off settles. The leading altcoin, Ethereum, hovers above $1,900, but resistance at $2,000 caps the upside. Meanwhile, Ripple has recorded the largest intraday jump among the three assets, up over 10% to $1.35.

Three scenarios for Japanese Yen ahead of snap election

The latest polls point to a dominant win for the ruling bloc at the upcoming Japanese snap election. The larger Sanae Takaichi’s mandate, the more investors fear faster implementation of tax cuts and spending plans.

XRP rally extends as modest ETF inflows support recovery

Ripple is accelerating its recovery, trading above $1.36 at the time of writing on Friday, as investors adjust their positions following a turbulent week in the broader crypto market. The remittance token is up over 21% from its intraday low of $1.12.