Jamie Saettele, CMT
Scandinavian Capital Markets
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Record positioning in S&P 500
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Record positioning in Copper
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Specs are still heavily long Wheat
52 Week Ownership Profile Extremes – Mexican Peso, S&P 500, Copper, Wheat, Rough Rice
13 Week Volume Highs – Silver, Soybean Oil, Wheat, Corn, Frozen OJ
The COT Index is the difference between net speculative positioning and net commercial positioning measured over a 52 week percentile. A reading of 100 indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 52 weeks with speculators buying and commercials selling. A reading of 0 indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 52 weeks with speculators selling and commercials buying. Speculators tend to be on the wrong side at the turn and commercials the correct side.
Latest CFTC Release dated June 12th, 2018
Non Commercials (speculators) – Red
Commercials – Blue
Small Speculators – Black
COTDiff (COT Index) – Black
52 week Percentile (COT Diff) – Gray
S&P 500 CME Continuous Contract
The ownership profile in the S&P 500 is at a record. Simply, the extreme speculative long position and extreme commercial short position warns of a price top.
Copper COMEX Continuous Contract
The ownership profile in Copper is at a record. Simply, the extreme speculative long position and extreme commercial short position warns of a price top. Also, the most recent data reveals extreme 1 and 4 week buying by speculators (see below chart). Extreme 1 week buying can indicate capitulation.
Copper COMEX Continuous Contract
Any reviews, news, research, analysis, prices or other information contained in this article is provided as general market commentary, does not constitute investment advice and may undergo changes from time to time. Trading the Financial and Currency Markets on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as to your favor. Before entering trading Financial and Currency Markets, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of some or more of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money which you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Financial and Currency Markets trading, and in case you have any doubt, rather seek advice from an independent financial advisor. Scandinavian Capital Markets AB, its owners, employees, agents or affiliates do not give investment advice, therefore Scandinavian Capital Markets AB assumes no liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may be suffered directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. Scandinavian Capital Markets AB strongly encourages consultation with a licensed representative or financial advisor regarding any particular investment or use of any investment strategy.
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