COT: Coffee Spill

Record positioning in Platinum…again
Record positioning in Coffee and extreme 4 week position change
Record positioning in Kiwi (NZD)

Jamie Saettele, CMT Scandinavian Capital Markets

52 Week Ownership Profile Extremes – U.S. Dollar Index, New Zealand Dollar, Canadian Dollar, Nikkei, Platinum, Soybean Oil, Lean Hogs, Coffee

13 Week Volume Highs – None

The COT Index is the difference between net speculative positioning and net commercial positioning measured over a 52 week percentile. A reading of 100 indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 52 weeks with speculators buying and commercials selling. A reading of 0 indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 52 weeks with speculators selling and commercials buying. Speculators tend to be on the wrong side at the turn and commercials the correct side.

Latest CFTC Release dated July 3rd, 2018

Non Commercials (speculators) – Red

Commercials – Blue

Small Speculators – Black

COTDiff (COT Index) – Black

52 week Percentile (COT Diff) – Gray

Coffee ICEUS Continuous Contract

The ownership profile in Coffee is at a record. Simply, the extreme speculative short position and extreme commercial long position warns of a price low.

Coffee ICEUS Continuous Contract

The change in positions over a 4 week period in Coffee is also at a record! Extreme speculative selling and commercial buying suggests capitulation and therefore potential for a price low.

Author

Jamie Saettele, CMT

Scandinavian Capital Markets

Jamie Saettele is Senior Technical Strategist at Scandinavian Capital Markets, a premier broker offering services to institutional clients, fund managers and professional traders around the world.

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