Coronavirus Won’t Move the Fed

U.S. Review

Coronavirus Won’t Move the Fed

• Minutes from the January 28-29 FOMC meeting indicate the coronavirus will not push the Fed to cut interest rates, and for the most part housing and manufacturing survey data this week supported that view.
• The Leading Economic Index jumped 0.8% to an all-time high—easing some concerns generated by its dip into negative year-over-year territory the prior month—while the Philly Fed Index exceeded expectations by jumping to 36.7 and the Empire Manufacturing Survey beat consensus by rising to 12.9.
• Housing, meanwhile, continues to exceed expectations. December and January were the two strongest months for housing starts since 2006.

Global Review

Japan Underperforms Expectations; Coronavirus Update

• This week’s Japanese GDP data indicated a significant slowdown in the Japanese economy to close out 2019. Q4 data revealed Japan’s economy contracted 6.3% quarter-overquarter annualized, while other measures of activity contracted notably as well. As a result, we have downgraded our 2020 GDP forecast and now expect the Japanese economy to contract in 2020.
• The coronavirus continues to linger over financial markets, with the most recent update of over 77,000 confirmed cases and over 2,200 fatalities around the world. We still expect the virus to cause additional disruptions to China’s economy.

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