In the near term, copper is set for more falls on global recessionary fears brought on by central banks aggressively hiking interest rates. However, some copper miners are warning that copper supply could be unable to meet future demands from green energy usage. Copper could be well placed for medium-term gains and BloombergNEF estimates that demand will increase by more than 50% from 2022 to 2040.
So, if the Fed does make a dovish pivot at their next October meeting then Copper’s seasonal pattern of strength around Q4 and Q1 is worth keeping in mind.
Major trade risks: If interest rates keep rising and inflation fears get worse then copper prices can keep falling on global recessionary fears.
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