On the radar

  • In Hungary, gross wage grew by 16% y/y in December, marking an acceleration from 13.9% in the previous month.

  • At 10 AM CET Poland will publish retail sales growth for January.

  • At 11 AM CET Croatia will release final reading of January’s inflation.

  • Tomorrow in the morning, Hungary releases unemployment rate.

Economic developments

In February the flash estimate of the consumer confidence indicator picked up by 0.4 percentage points in the European Union and 0.6 percentage points in the euro area. It thus reached -15.8 points in the EU and -15.5 points in the Eurozone that is still well below the long-term average (as reported by European Commission). It also remains below the levels prior to the outbreak of the war in February 2022. However, the gap is closing gradually. As far as region is concerned, detailed data on consumer confidence will be published in a week. In January, the CEE average ticked up quite visibly and we believe we see further improvement as real wage growth accelerates amid headline inflation footprints falling dynamically.

Market developments

The CEE currencies have strengthened roughly 0.5% against the euro since the beginning of the week. Long term yields declined only in Hungary and Romania this week. Today, Romania plans to sell RON 200 million of bonds maturing in 2038. Romania also plans to hold presidential election in September while general election is scheduled for December 8. In Poland, according to the press releases, the motion to put the central bank’s Governor Glapinski in front of special tribunal is planned to be filed in the Parliament by the end of March. He has been accused of providing misleading information on financial results of the central bank (that in case of profit contributes to the budget revenues) as well as engaging in political partisanship ahead of October’s 2023 elections.

Download The Full CEE Macro Daily

This document is intended as an additional information source, aimed towards our customers. It is based on the best resources available to the authors at press time. The information and data sources utilised are deemed reliable, however, Erste Bank Sparkassen (CR) and affiliates do not take any responsibility for accuracy nor completeness of the information contained herein. This document is neither an offer nor an invitation to buy or sell any securities.

Recommended Content


Recommended Content

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD drops to fresh lows and challenges 1.0400

EUR/USD drops to fresh lows and challenges 1.0400

The US Dollar now gathers extra steam, sending the US Dollar Index (DXY) to fresh highs and forcing EUR/USD to dro to daily lows in the 1.0400 zone ahead of the release of the FOMC Minutes.

EUR/USD News
Gold retreats, holds firmly above $2,920

Gold retreats, holds firmly above $2,920

Prices of Gold now face increasing selling pressure and recedes to the area of daily lows near the $2,930 level per ounce troy in response to the strong bounce in the Greenback, and mixed US yields.

Gold News
GBP/USD breaks below 1.2600 to print new weekly lows

GBP/USD breaks below 1.2600 to print new weekly lows

The strong resumption of the selling bias in the risk complex and further recovery in the Greenback prompt GBP/USD to rapidly break below the 1.2600 support and hit fresh weekly lows on Wednesday.

GBP/USD News
Fed Minutes to offer clues on slower rate cuts outlook in 2025

Fed Minutes to offer clues on slower rate cuts outlook in 2025

The Minutes of the Fed’s January 28-29 policy meeting will be published on Wednesday. Details surrounding the discussions on the decision to keep policy settings unchanged will be scrutinized by investors.

Read more
Money market outlook 2025: Trends and dynamics in the Eurozone, US, and UK

Money market outlook 2025: Trends and dynamics in the Eurozone, US, and UK

We delve into the world of money market funds. Distinct dynamics are at play in the US, eurozone, and UK. In the US, repo rates are more attractive, and bills are expected to appreciate. It's also worth noting that the Fed might cut rates more than anticipated, similar to the UK. In the eurozone, unsecured rates remain elevated.

Read more
The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD

The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD

SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.

Read More

Majors

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures

Best Brokers of 2025