Consumer confidence slips in October amid sustained job concerns

Summary

Consumer confidence slipped in October amid persistent pessimism about job availability and rising worries about income prospects and future business conditions. Inflation expectations also ticked slightly higher.

Holding pattern

Consumer confidence came in at 94.6 in October, the third consecutive monthly decline. Slight solace comes from the fact that last month's measure was upwardly revised to 95.6 from 94.2, leaving consumers sitting about where we thought they were last month. Consumers' assessment of their current situation ticked up slightly, while their future expectations declined (chart). Though things haven't exactly gotten better, they haven't gotten particularly worse, either.

We have long cautioned against reading too much into confidence and sentiment as they do not away serve as reliable gauges for future consumer spending. In fact, a theme of our Holiday Sales preview is that retail therapy may be just the cure for households feeling low this holiday season. But just because confidence does not always predict spending is no reason to look past this report, especially right now when current readings on the economy are scarce.

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