Close RBNZ decision is due on Wed

Asia market update: South Korea equity volatility continues to weigh on global equities as the country begins 24-hour FX trading; Samsung Q2 prelim results due on Tues; Hon Hai rises on sales figures and Q3 guidance; Close RBNZ decision is due on Wed.

General trend and developments

- Markets have seemingly continued to move past Iran as traders focus on earnings and economic fundamentals.

- With South Korea remaining volatile in Q3, US equity FUTs have pared gains in Asia after Friday’s holiday.

- Samsung is speculated to continue to raise DRAM prices. Specifically, the co. is said to seek to raise DRAM prices by up to 20% in Q3 q/q; Samsung's DRAM ASP rose by >90% q/q during Q1. [financial press].

- Meanwhile, Samsung Electronics is also expected to report Q2 preliminary earnings results on July 7th.

- With helium supplies in focus for chipmakers, Australian health care firm [Compumedics [(CMP.AU)] noted the helium-related supply and pricing disruption, which slowed MEG shipment and installation activity more than anticipated, has now been resolved.

- JGB yields rise ahead of Tuesday’s 30-year bond auction. Japan has recently seen softer demand at 10-year and 20-year JGB auctions. Recall, the MOF’s bond auctions from Jul 2nd and Jun 25th. Recent 30-year JGB auctions have also seen disappointing demand [Jun 10th: JAPAN SELLS ¥600B VS. ¥600B INDICATED IN 30-YEAR JGB BONDS; AVG YIELD: 3.8600% V 3.8420% PRIOR; BID-TO-COVER: 2.94X V 3.49X PRIOR].

- World Cup related demand was partially responsible for the improvement in Hong Kong’s Jun whole economy PMI.

- Australia sees additional data suggesting a possible peak in the Iran-related inflation [Australia Jun Melbourne Institute Inflation M/M: -0.4% v -0.3% .prior; Y/Y: 3.9% v 4.4% prior] This could be, perhaps, another reason for the RBA to extend its rate pause in Aug.

- NZIER RBNZ Shadow Board confirmed that Wed’s RBNZ decision and vote are expected to be close calls.

-US equity FUTs +0.3% to +0.8% during Asia trading.

Looking ahead (Asian-weighted focus, using Asian time zone)

-Mon July 6th: (Mon night, US Jun S&P/ISM Services/Composite PMI).

-Tue July 7th: JP 30-Year JGB Auction, UK BoE MPC Meeting Minutes, (Tue night, US May Trade Balance).

-Wed July 8th: KR May Current Account, JP May Current Account, RBNZ Rate Decision, (Wed night, US 10-Year Note Auction, US FOMC Meeting Minutes).

-Thu July 9th: CN Jun CPI/PPI, JP 5-Year JGB Auction, MY Rate Decision, (Wed night, EU ECB Meeting Minutes, US Jun Existing Home Sales).

-Fri July 10th: JP Jun PPI, US IEA Monthly Report (Fri night, US WASDE Report, RU Jun CPI).

Holidays in Asia this week

-Fri July 10th: New Zealand ‘Matariki’.

Headlines/economic data

Australia/New Zealand

-(AU) ASX 200 opens -0.2% at 8,828.

-(NZ) New Zealand NZIER Shadow Board recommends RBNZ holds OCR rates at 2.25% on Mon, July 6th.

-(AU) Australia Jun Melbourne Institute Inflation M/M: -0.4% v -0.3% prior; Y/Y: 3.9% v 4.4% prior.

-(AU) Australia Jun ANZ-Indeed Job Advertisements M/M: -0.2% v +1.8% prior.

-(AU) ANTHROPIC.IPO Said to be seeking to acquire >1.4GW of capacity from data centers in Australia costing as much as A$21.6B (=$15B) - Australian press.

-(AU) Australia Regulator AUSTRAC: Bet365 today entered into legally binding enforceable undertaking requiring co. to overhaul it's systems; Will require online bookmaker, Bet365, to strengthen it's anti-money laundering controls.

-(NZ) New Zealand Jun ANZ Commodity Price M/M: -1.0% v 0.7% prior.

China/Hong Kong

-(CN) Shanghai Composite opens +0.4% at 4,059; (HK) Hang Seng opens +0.2% at 23,405.

-(CN) China preparing to test-fire a nuclear-capable long-range missile with a 'dummy' warhead in South Pacific within the next 24 hours - Australian press.

-(CN) China begins safety violation crackdown in key sectors - Xinhua; Crackdown focus on sectors including mining, chemicals.

-(CN) China Finance Ministry (MOF): to adjust tax exemptions on new energy vehicles (NEV); To also cancel the vessel tax preferential policy - press.

-(CN) German Foreign Ministry summons China Ambassador for urgent talks over cooperation with Russia - German press [from Jul 3rd].

-(CN) Commission Pres Von der Leyen: All instruments on the table regarding China; Aiming to launch European housing alliance.

-(CN) BABA Said to ban its staff from using Claude Code internally from July 10th citing backdoor security risk - press [Old].

-(CN) Tencent [700.HK] Noted DeepSeek-V4 official version 'direct supply from original developer' to launch in mid-Jul.

-(CN) China’s NFRA reportedly warning of “serious credit risk” at Z-Bank - press.

-(CN) China Jun Preliminary Retail Passenger Vehicle Sales M/M: +9% v +9.2% prior; Y/Y: -21% v -22.1% prior - PCA.

-(HK) Hong Kong Jun PMI (whole economy): 52.0 v 50.4 prior (2nd month of expansion).

-(CN) China PBOC sets the yuan mid-point at 6.8066 v 6.8047 prior.

-(CN) China PBOC Open Market Operation (OMO): Sells CNY7B in 7-day Reverse Repos; Net drains CNY151B v drains CNY169B prior.

Japan

-(JP) Nikkei 225 opens +0.3% at 69,918.

-(JP) JGB yields rise ahead of Tuesday’s 30-year bond auction.

-(JP) Japan PM Takaichi: Domestic investment is lacking in economic growth - Parliamentary comments.

-(JP) Japan Chief Cab Sec Kihara: Seeks strong economy for natural tax revenue growth [follows press report about FY25/26 tax revenues continuing to rise].

-(JP) Japan Financial Watchdog investigates shareholding reports amid activist investors 'ramping up efforts' - (weekend update).

-(JP) Japan Rengo (Japan largest union) final survey: Japan firms offered average wage hikes of 5.01% v 5.25% y/y [from Jul 3rd].

-(JP) Tier 1 US brokerage firm cut Yen forecast to ¥165 from ¥155, notes carry trades – US financial press.

-(JP) Japan's private company Turing reportedly now using AMD's AI accelerators alongside Nvidia's - US press.

-(JP) BOJ Outright Bond Purchase Operation for <1 Year; 5~10 Years; 10~25 Years; (Inline with planned amounts for Q2, 2026).

-(JP) Bank of Japan (BOJ) Results related to today's outright bond buying operations.

Korea

-(KR) Kospi opens +1.2% at 8,186.

-(KR) South Korea President Lee: Administrative processes must be sped up for chip clusters; Must secure power, water supply preemptively for chip clusters; To launch committee to enhance chip competitiveness in August.

-(KR) South Korea Fin Min Koo: BOK to closely monitor impact, movement of Won's 24-hour trade; South Korea's Won 24-hour trading is starting point for global leap; Won's 24-hour trading reflects South Korea's confidence in economy.

-(KR) South Korea prosecutors indict 4 refiners on allegations of collusion - Yonhap.

-(KR) South Korea's customs agency reportedly said on Monday that it has detected a total of KRW770.3B (=$503M) worth of trade security violations for the first five months of FY26 [inline with the governments efforts to root out illegal activities].

-(KR) META Said to be considering Samsung for KRW10T custom AI chip production - press [from Jul 3rd].

-(KR) South Korea Presidential Chief of Staff: Government to seek creation of 'future response fund' using tax surplus from semiconductor boom - Yonhap [weekend update].

-(KR) South Korea restarts tungsten mine for the first time in 30 years - Nikkei.

Other Asia

-(IN) India has lifted an emergency natural gas supply control framework imposed after LNG supply disruptions caused by the Middle East crisis [weekend update].

-(IN) India has secured fertilizer supplies as 15 ships crossed the Strait of Hormuz - ET.

-(TW) Foxconn [2317.TW]: Reported Q2 (NT$) Rev 2.513T, +39.8% y/y; Reported Jun (NT$) Rev 821.8B, +52.1% y/y; Looking ahead to the third quarter, AI rack shipments are expected to maintain growth.

-(TW) Taiwan Dollar weakens to NT$32/USD, for the first time since April 2026.

-(TH) Thailand Jun CPI M/M: -0.3% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 2.4% v 2.7%e.

-(PH) Philippine Economic Planning Secretary: 2027 growth seen at 5.0-6.0%.

-(VN) PVS.VN Petrovietnam Gas: Signs contract with Shell Eastern trading for LNG supplies during 2027-2031 period.

North America

-(US) White House issues President Trump’s schedule for the upcoming NATO Summit which is being held in Turkey: Trump scheduled to meet with Turkey President Erdogan at 3:15pm [local time], on Tuesday 7th July 2026; President Trump is scheduled to meet with Ukraine President Zelenskyy at 2:30 PM local time.

-(US) JPMorgan has forecast Q4 gold price at $4,500/oz – Press [update].

-(US) WINDROSE.IPO CEO: Windrose Technology has sufficient funding for wider expansion despite payroll issues - WSJ.

-(US) Alarum Technologies [ALAR]: Announces Temporary Operational Pause of Certain Network Services.

-(CO) Colombia President Petro: Talked with Pres Trump about illicit crop replacement, discussed eradicating the coca crop used to produce cocaine [weekend update].

Europe

-(RU) Kremlin spokesperson: Trump and Putin spoke for 85 mins on Saturday; Trump offered to reach a settlement in Ukraine ahead of NATO summit in Turkey [weekend update].

-(EU) ECB's Makhlouf (Ireland): ECB has absolute will to deliver its 2% inflation target [weekend update].

-(EU) ECB: Eurosystem's T2 is currently facing an incident impacting the processing of payments.

-(UK) BOE Gov Bailey: Absent the Iran war, UK inflation would be at target; Want to achieve the inflation target without damaging output [weekend update].

-(SE) Sweden July SEB Housing-Price Indicator: 47 v 44 prior.

Middle East

-(SA) OPEC+ to raise output targets by an additional 188K bpd from the additional voluntary production adjustments announced in April 2023, commencing in August 2026 [weekend update].

-(IL) Israel PM Netanyahu's office: Netanyahu spoke with Trump on Friday, agreed to meet in the US soon [weekend update].

-(FR) French Pres Macron: Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier to return to home port due to positive developments in the Strait of Hormuz [weekend update].

Levels as of 01:20 ET

Nikkei 225 -0.5%; ASX 200 -0.2%; Hang Seng +0.9%; Shanghai Composite -0.1%; Kospi -1.0%.

Equity S&P500 Futures +0.3%; Nasdaq100 +0.8%; DAX flat; FTSE100 -0.1%.

EUR 1.1442-1.1428; JPY 161.99-161.28; AUD 0.6945-0.6922; NZD 0.5716-0.5683.

Gold -0.6% at $4,152/oz; BTC +0.7% at $63,196; WTI Crude Oil flat at $68.69/bbl; Copper -0.2% at $6.2133/lbs.