EUR/USD has been a compelling play since the monthly bottoming on the charts started to play out. 

The pair is now at yet another crossroads in its pursuit for the 1.20 area. 

The single currency is currently in bullish territory and there are little reasons to be short considering the fundamental backdrops - (the US safe-haven status is diluted by positive political and economic developments).

However, profit-taking cannot be ruled out, but only taken advantage of once the daily structure is broken, retested and pulled away from in a fresh bearish impulse to the downside.

The following is a full break down from the bottom up and back again.

Monthly chart

As can be seen, the positioning sizing of net longs has grown exponentially which ties up with the rally since March lows.

There was a bullish pin bar, from the perspective that on a lower time frame, such as the weekly this would equate to a correction of an impulse and the next bullish impulse. 

Weekly chart

There was a correction into liquidity and the confluence of prior resistance structure and a 38.2% Fib.

There was a bullish signal going down to the daily chart in the form a reverse head and shoulders at liquidity:

At this juncture, the weekly prior resistance is in focus as a target tot he downside. 

There is, first, the scope of a 50% mean reversion of the impulse.

Daily structure

The bears will need to break the support and there should be a restest of the structure prior to downside extensions. 

Meanwhile, the chart is bullish with price above the structure. 

 

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