Central banks on hold, but plenty of political drama

Danske Research Team Danske Bank A/S

Market movers ahead

At Wednesday's FOMC meeting, we expect the Fed to stay on hold, particularly in light of the recent upward revision of payrolls data.

Lagarde's first ECB meeting is not expected to bring policy changes, but the ECB is likely to launch formally its long awaited strategy review – though we may not get a deadline for its completion.

German politics, and the survival of the Grand Coalition, is still in flux, and investors should not get too excited about a big German fiscal policy boost in the near term.

The UK election is coming up on Thursday. If Boris Johnson gets a solid majority, he should be able to get his Brexit deal through Parliament before Christmas and the UK will leave the EU by 31 January.

We may get a phase one deal in the US-China trade talks next week, as Trump is otherwise set to put a 15% tariff on another USD160bn of goods from China.

In Scandinavia, we will be looking at inflation figures as well as Norges Bank's Regional survey, which we expect to project more muted growth in H1 next year.

Weekly wrap-up

Chinese PMIs were better than we expected, supporting our view that the worst is over and that China has begun a moderate acceleration supported by stimulus and declining trade war fears.

In the US, ISM disappointed, still signalling US GDP growth momentum has slowed further in Q4.

US President Trump has started targeting other countries on trade.

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Danske Research Team

Danske Bank A/S

Research is part of Danske Bank Markets and operate as Danske Bank's research department. The department monitors financial markets and economic trends of relevance to Danske Bank Markets and its clients.

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