CEE growth navigator after flash 3Q25 data

After seeing 3Q25 flash estimates, we do not expect major changes to the 2025 and 2026 forecasts in most of the countries. We also switch our attention to the outlook for 2026 (after slight finetuning of 2025 GDP estimates. The external environment should not be a drag on the economic development in the region. While uncertainty remains high, we expect sentiment to settle down after there is more clarity regarding tariffs since August 2025. Further, 20026 is the last year in which RRF payments will be flowing. The focus and efforts to use the grants for investment activity will be high, supporting the growth dynamics. Private consumption should contribute positively as well, though the growth dynamics may be decelerating. All in all, we mostly maintain our 2026 forecasts in the region. Adjustments, if any, are rather small apart from Serbia. In Serbia we see 2026 GDP at 2.7% as opposed to 4.3% expected previously. Further, Czechia, Slovenia and Romania are expected to grow slightly above 2%. We maintain Slovakia’s performance of 1.3% next year as well. In Hungary, we alter the 2026 forecast to 2% (down from 2.3%), while in Poland growth dynamics may be slightly higher (compared to current expectations) at around 3.5% next year.

Inflation should ease across the region in 2026, supporting a monetary easing scenario in 2026. Monetary easing should be resumed in the course of 2026 in all CEE countries except for Czechia. In Czechia, 3.5% seems to be a terminal rate. In Poland and Romania, we should see monetary easing during the first half of 2026. In Serbia, we expect monetary easing in the second half of the year. In Hungary, we believe that the first easing steps are likely in the second half of 2026, potentially toward the end of the year. By then, we anticipate that the situation regarding price caps will be resolved, and the outlook for 2027 inflation will be clearer.

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