CEE: Data releases by the year-end – 2026 events to watch

We look at the calendar and events until the end of the year in this edition of Insights. Just before Christmas Eve, Poland will publish retail sales growth in November along with unemployment. Slovakia will release producer prices and Serbia real wage growth in October. The following week, before New Year’s Eve, Slovenia, Croatia and Serbia will publish retail sales growth in November. Croatia and Serbia will show industry performance as well. The end of the month is also typically the time to release flash inflation and before year-end we will get to see December inflation in Slovenia and Poland. At the end of the year, it is also worth checking the Special Report titled “Events worth watching” in 2026, which provides a list with key developments next year across the region. The report goes beyond the traditional economic forecasts and peaks on the events of importance that may affect the economic prospects of the countries. Hungary will be in the spotlight, with parliamentary elections scheduled for April 2026. The next edition of Insights will be published on Monday, January 12.

FX market developments

Over the last week, the Czech koruna and the Hungarian forint have weakened against the euro, while the Polish zloty strengthened more visibly. In the case of Hungary, the EURHUF moved slightly above 390 in reaction to the change of the central bank’s communique. The Hungarian central bank kept the policy rate flat at 6.5%, but the dovish bias has become quite apparent. We will also analyze our forecast in the light of the shift in the central bank’s stance and we cannot exclude adjustment. The Czech central also left the key policy rate flat at 3.5%. The Czech central bank, on the other hand, sounded relatively hawkish in the statement referring to elevated inflationary pressures and need for tight monetary conditions. Finally, Serbia’s central bank has been active on the FX market to maintain the stability of the EURRSD. Summarizing performance throughout 2025, CEE currencies have strengthened against the euro. The Hungarian forint outperformed, appreciating roughly 6% since the beginning of the year. Only the Romanian leu weakened, and we believe that 5.05–5.10 is broadly the new comfort range for the central bank.

Bond market developments

As the year draws to a close, we provide a summary of the performance of CEE LCY government bonds in 2025. Compared to the beginning of the year, yields on 10Y CZGBs and HGBs rose by 45bp and 20bp, respectively, mainly due to central banks adopting a more hawkish stance and effectively halting discussions on further rate cuts. Nevertheless, both Czech and Hungarian bonds outperformed German Bunds, where 10Y yields increased by 50bp. Additionally, the Czech koruna and Hungarian forint appreciated against the euro by 3.4% and 6%, respectively. Romania’s 10Y yields declined by 50bp since the start of the year, supported by the adoption of a massive fiscal consolidation package, even though monetary easing was delayed. Polish bonds clearly outperformed their regional peers, with 10Y yields falling by 70bp, further boosted by an additional 1.5% currency appreciation vs. the euro. In January, we will publish our new Bond Market Report, summarizing the outlook for bond supply and yield developments in CEE for 2026.

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