Last week brought a grab-bag of data releases that were mostly on the positive side for the domestic economy, though with some lingering points of weakness. The Reserve Bank's sixmonthly review of the financial system didn't offer up any surprises. The real highlight will be this Thursday's announcement on its proposed changes to bank capital requirements.

Kicking off last week was retail spending, which rose by 1.6% in the September quarter after a subdued 0.2% rise in the June quarter. The gains were widespread across store types, including strong gains in home furnishings and recreational goods. The pickup in spending was consistent with the recent firming in the housing market, which will have given households a little more confidence about opening up their wallets.

While the rise in retail spending was well above market forecasts, it was close to our own forecast and doesn't alter our view that overall GDP for the September quarter is likely to be soft. We expect that gains in retail, agriculture and construction will be largely offset by weakness in personal and business services and in manufacturing. We're expecting GDP growth of just 0.3% for the quarter, a forecast that we'll firm up as other sectoral indicators are released over the next two weeks.

As we noted in our latest quarterly Economic Overview, while we've marked down our expectations for September quarter GDP over the last few months, we've also become more confident that this will mark the low point for growth. The remainder of last week's data releases, all pertaining to the December quarter, have bolstered that view.

 

Download The Full Weekly Commentary

 

All information contained on this website is given in good faith and has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. However, the information is selective and neither Westpac nor any other company in the Westpac Group have verified the information, which may not be complete or accurate for your purposes. Those companies make no representation or warranty of any kind as to the accuracy or completeness of the information. It is general information only and should not be considered as a comprehensive statement on any matter and should not be relied upon as such. Neither Westpac nor any other company in the Westpac Group nor any of their directors, employees and associates guarantees the security of this website, gives any warranty of reliability or accuracy nor accepts any responsibility arising in any other way including by reason of negligence for, errors in, or omissions from, the information on this website and does not accept any liability for any loss or damage, however caused, as a result of any person relying on any information on the website or being unable to access this website. This disclaimer is subject to any applicable contrary provisions of the Australian Securities and Investments Commission Act and Trade Practices Act.

Analysis feed

FXStreet Trading Signals now available!

Access to real-time signals, community and guidance now!

Latest Analysis


Latest Forex Analysis

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD stabilizing as US coronavirus cases continue to climb

EUR/USD is trading around 1.1250, pressured amid concerns about the spread of coronavirus in the US. Traders are digesting the upbeat Non-Farm Payrolls figures already out ahead of the long US weekend. 

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD attempting a bounce amid thin liquidity

GBP/USD is closer to 1.25, off the lows. Top-level EU-UK Brexit talks have been postponed until next week amid disagreements. The UK is continuing to reopen while US coronavirus cases are surging. 

GBP/USD News

Bitcoin must endorse the time of Ethereum has come

The crypto market remains in a choke point, and after signs of a possible upward shift yesterday, the market was once again disappointed to see Bitcoin in the low range of the $8900 to $9000 choke point.

Read more

Gold: There is a bearish signal on the 4-hour chart

Price action has been slow on Friday due to the bank holiday in the US as the nation celebrates independence day. This week has been an interesting one as there has been some good economic data but some very bad coronavirus news in the US. 

Gold News

S&P 500: Futures struggle to refresh two-week top

S&P 500 Futures prints mild loss of 0.10% while declining to 3,126 during the initial hour of Tokyo session on Friday. In doing so, the risk barometer fails to extend the previous four-day winning streak.

Read more

Forex Majors

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures