Car registration growth in CEE outpaces the EU

Erste Bank Research Team Erste Bank

On the radar

Real retail sales in Poland increased by 5.4% y/y in October, another strong data release.
Real gross wage in September went up by 10.4% y/y in Serbia.
Today, at 9 AM CET, Slovakia release producer prices.
At 10 AM CET, Poland publishes unemployment data for October and third quarter.

Economic developments

Between January and October 2025, new EU car registrations increased by 1.4% y/y, marking the fourth consecutive month of growth. During the same period, car registrations in the region (CEE7 excluding Serbia) rose by 5.4% y/y. Apart from Romania and Slovakia—where registrations have been contracting due to fiscal consolidation and tax increases affecting durable goods sales—other CEE countries recorded solid growth, close to 8% in most cases. Regarding car registrations by power source, between January and October 2025, petrol and diesel registrations declined, while electric vehicle registrations (including battery electric, hybrid, and plug-in) increased. Overall, we observe that economic developments in the region largely correlate with car registrations that can be also seen as a leading indicator for growth.

Market movements

CEE currencies continued strengthening against the euro. EUR/HUF fell as low as 382, while EUR/PLN touched 4.22. Long-term yields moved further down, with 10-year yields in Poland declining by almost 15 basis points, followed closely by Hungary, where 10-year yields reached 7%. In Czechia, central banker Seidler stated that a slightly restrictive monetary policy is needed. Deputy Governor Frait also views the risks as slightly inflationary. In Hungary, a parliamentary hearing for the deputy governor appointment took place, and Banai confirmed support for the inflation target. In Serbia, NIS is operating in maintenance mode, which may last until Saturday. Serbia is hoping the U.S. will lift the sanctions.

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Erste Bank Research Team

Erste Bank

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