Executive Summary

Congress returns from its August recess Tuesday, September 5 with a long to-do list of legislative deadlines, including lifting the debt ceiling, funding the government beyond the end of September, reauthorizing a number of federal programs and passing a budget resolution to serve as the vehicle for changes to tax law. For the House of Representatives, there are just 12 scheduled legislative days in September to accomplish the to-do list. In this slightly longer edition of the Capitol Hill Update, we outline the legislative calendar and provide our views on how we believe federal fiscal policy will unfold in the month ahead.

Our expectation is that the debt ceiling will be lifted before the projected September 29 deadline. Given the need for a bipartisan vote in the Senate to lift the borrowing limit, we expect the debt ceiling will be suspended for a period of time without being tied to budget cuts or other policy changes. The federal funding bill will also require bipartisan support and thus we expect Congress will enact a continuing resolution that maintains this fiscal year's funding levels through the beginning/middle of December, buying policymakers more time to work toward a solution for the remainder of the fiscal year. While tax reform discussions will be ongoing, we do not expect any major developments until late October or early November due to the numerous other pressing legislative priorities and the need to first pass a budget resolution.

 

Debt Ceiling: Will There Be Strings Attached?

One of the biggest concerns among market participants is the need to lift the nation's borrowing limit. Back in 2011, a down-to-the-wire vote resulted in volatile financial markets and a credit rating downgrade of U.S. sovereign debt. During this round of the debt ceiling debate, there have been demands by some fiscally conservative members of the House of Representatives to cut nondefense spending in exchange for lifting the debt ceiling. Other members of Congress have balked at this approach, preferring to pass a "clean" debt ceiling bill that does not tie the borrowing limit to other legislative items.

Given the fact that at least eight Democrats will need to join with Republicans in the Senate to advance the bill, it will require a bipartisan effort to raise the debt ceiling. A key question surrounding the debt ceiling debate is whether Democrats will demand concessions from Republicans to gain their votes. If fiscally conservative members begin to abandon ship in droves and Republican leadership must lean heavily on Democratic votes to pass a debt ceiling increase, it may empower the minority party to try to extract a hefty price from the party in power. If this was to occur, it would put Republican leadership in an awkward place; short of the necessary votes, and stuck between two sides both demanding concessions for their critical block of votes. The probability of a major market moving event in this case would likely increase, and we will be watching closely in the weeks ahead for signs that events are unfolding along this path.

Our view is that a "clean" debt ceiling bill with no other policy changes or budget cuts attached will be passed. There are just 12 legislative days scheduled in the House of Representatives before the September 29 deadline, suggesting that both the House and Senate must move quickly toward passage, limiting the ability to have a long, drawn out debate over other policy changes.1 This "clean" debt ceiling bill is likely to suspend the borrowing limit as has been done frequently in the recent past as opposed to increasing the borrowing limit to a specific dollar amount.

 

Federal Funding: Expect the Can to Be Kicked

The next major issue to tackle is funding the federal government beyond September 30. Should Congress fail to pass a funding bill, the result would be a partial federal government shutdown. In the case of a partial shutdown, the President's Office of Management and Budget would develop a plan to determine which federal employees would be affected through furlough.

The most likely outcome given the very short timeline entails passing a continuing resolution (CR) that funds the government through the first or second week in December. Once again, the CR will require at least eight Democrats to join with Republicans to keep the government functioning. This CR will likely carry over funding from the current 2017 fiscal year to keep the bill bipartisan and hopefully noncontroversial. We believe policymakers will likely turn to a shortterm patch because the regular appropriations process has been delayed as policymakers have grappled with other legislative items and difficult questions remained unresolved. Thus far, Republicans have pursued an aggressive expansion of defense spending while keeping nondefense spending more or less flat. Budget agreements over the past few years have often led a more bipartisan approach that provides bumps in funding to both defense and nondefense discretionary spending. If Democrats refuse to play ball in the Senate on a budget that abandons this balanced framework, or if a fight erupts over controversial budget items such as funding for a border wall, the appropriations process would likely continue to face major roadblocks throughout the fall.

Kicking the can to December will buy more time for a longer-term funding bill to be worked out in the remaining months of the year and allow Congress to turn to the other legislative deadlines it is facing in September, including the need to reauthorize the Federal Aviation Administration, the National Flood Insurance Program and the Children's Health Insurance Program. Historically, reauthorizing these programs has at times been controversial and time consuming, requiring several weeks of debate to find solutions. This time around, we would not be surprised if these programs' authorizations are also extended for a short period to buy time for continued negotiations and more comprehensive legislation.

 

What about Tax Reform?

Given the multiple legislative deadlines facing Congress in September, as well as the fact that Republicans still need to pass a budget resolution before moving on to tax reform, we do not expect much progress on tax legislation until October or November. As we have described in previous pieces, the FY 2018 budget resolution is needed to proceed with the reconciliation process that will allow tax legislation to clear both chambers with a simple majority vote.2 Early signs are that the debate over a budget resolution could take some time. Fiscal conservatives in the House want more nondefense budget cuts, while more moderate members have resisted sharp cuts to nondefense discretionary and/or mandatory spending. Disagreements over balancing the budget/deficit size over the next decade have also plagued the budget resolution. For now, despite the optimistic rhetoric coming from Washington D.C. on taxes, we expect tax legislation will take a backseat in September to other more pressing federal fiscal policy items, such as the debt ceiling and government funding.

 

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Recently, the stock market has experienced high levels of volatility. If you are thinking about participating in fast moving markets, please take the time to read the information below. Wells Fargo Investments, LLC will not be restricting trading on fast moving securities, but you should understand that there can be significant additional risks to trading in a fast market. We've tried to outline the issues so you can better understand the potential risks. If you're unsure about the risks of a fast market and how they may affect a particular trade you've considering, you may want to place your trade through a phone agent at 1-800-TRADERS. The agent can explain the difference between market and limit orders and answer any questions you may have about trading in volatile markets. Higher Margin Maintenance Requirements on Volatile Issues The wide swings in intra-day trading have also necessitated higher margin maintenance requirements for certain stocks, specifically Internet, e-commerce and high-tech issues. Due to their high volatility, some of these stocks will have an initial and a maintenance requirement of up to 70%. Stocks are added to this list daily based on market conditions. Please call 1-800-TRADERS to check whether a particular stock has a higher margin maintenance requirement. Please note: this higher margin requirement applies to both new purchases and current holdings. A change in the margin requirement for a current holding may result in a margin maintenance call on your account. Fast Markets A fast market is characterized by heavy trading and highly volatile prices. These markets are often the result of an imbalance of trade orders, for example: all "buys" and no "sells." Many kinds of events can trigger a fast market, for example a highly anticipated Initial Public Offering (IPO), an important company news announcement or an analyst recommendation. Remember, fast market conditions can affect your trades regardless of whether they are placed with an agent, over the internet or on a touch tone telephone system. In Fast Markets service response and account access times may vary due to market conditions, systems performance, and other factors. Potential Risks in a Fast Market "Real-time" Price Quotes May Not be Accurate Prices and trades move so quickly in a fast market that there can be significant price differences between the quotes you receive one moment and the next. Even "real-time quotes" can be far behind what is currently happening in the market. The size of a quote, meaning the number of shares available at a particular price, may change just as quickly. A real-time quote for a fast moving stock may be more indicative of what has already occurred in the market rather than the price you will receive. Your Execution Price and Orders Ahead In a fast market, orders are submitted to market makers and specialists at such a rapid pace, that a backlog builds up which can create significant delays. Market makers may execute orders manually or reduce size guarantees during periods of volatility. When you place a market order, your order is executed on a first-come first-serve basis. This means if there are orders ahead of yours, those orders will be executed first. The execution of orders ahead of yours can significantly affect your execution price. Your submitted market order cannot be changed or cancelled once the stock begins trading. Initial Public Offerings may be Volatile IPOs for some internet, e-commerce and high tech issues may be particularly volatile as they begin to trade in the secondary market. Customers should be aware that market orders for these new public companies are executed at the current market price, not the initial offering price. Market orders are executed fully and promptly, without regard to price and in a fast market this may result in an execution significantly different from the current price quoted for that security. Using a limit order can limit your risk of receiving an unexpected execution price. Large Orders in Fast Markets Large orders are often filled in smaller blocks. An order for 10,000 shares will sometimes be executed in two blocks of 5,000 shares each. In a fast market, when you place an order for 10,000 shares and the real-time market quote indicates there are 15,000 shares at 5, you would expect your order to execute at 5. In a fast market, with a backlog of orders, a real-time quote may not reflect the state of the market at the time your order is received by the market maker or specialist. Once the order is received, it is executed at the best prices available, depending on how many shares are offered at each price. Volatile markets may cause the market maker to reduce the size of guarantees. This could result in your large order being filled in unexpected smaller blocks and at significantly different prices. For example: an order for 10,000 shares could be filled as 2,500 shares at 5 and 7,500 shares at 10, even though you received a real-time quote indicating that 15,000 shares were available at 5. In this example, the market moved significantly from the time the "real-time" market quote was received and when the order was submitted. Online Trading and Duplicate Orders Because fast markets can cause significant delays in the execution of a trade, you may be tempted to cancel and resubmit your order. Please consider these delays before canceling or changing your market order, and then resubmitting it. There is a chance that your order may have already been executed, but due to delays at the exchange, not yet reported. When you cancel or change and then resubmit a market order in a fast market, you run the risk of having duplicate orders executed. Limit Orders Can Limit Risk A limit order establishes a "buy price" at the maximum you're willing to pay, or a "sell price" at the lowest you are willing to receive. Placing limit orders instead of market orders can reduce your risk of receiving an unexpected execution price. A limit order does not guarantee your order will be executed -" however, it does guarantee you will not pay a higher price than you expected. Telephone and Online Access During Volatile Markets During times of high market volatility, customers may experience delays with the Wells Fargo Online Brokerage web site or longer wait times when calling 1-800-TRADERS. It is possible that losses may be suffered due to difficulty in accessing accounts due to high internet traffic or extended wait times to speak to a telephone agent. Freeriding is Prohibited Freeriding is when you buy a security low and sell it high, during the same trading day, but use the proceeds of its sale to pay for the original purchase of the security. There is no prohibition against day trading, however you must avoid freeriding. To avoid freeriding, the funds for the original purchase of the security must come from a source other than the sale of the security. Freeriding violates Regulation T of the Federal Reserve Board concerning the extension of credit by the broker-dealer (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC) to its customers. The penalty requires that the customer's account be frozen for 90 days. Stop and Stop Limit Orders A stop is an order that becomes a market order once the security has traded through the stop price chosen. You are guaranteed to get an execution. For example, you place an order to buy at a stop of $50 which is above the current price of $45. If the price of the stock moves to or above the $50 stop price, the order becomes a market order and will execute at the current market price. Your trade will be executed above, below or at the $50 stop price. In a fast market, the execution price could be drastically different than the stop price. A "sell stop" is very similar. You own a stock with a current market price of $70 a share. You place a sell stop at $67. If the stock drops to $67 or less, the trade becomes a market order and your trade will be executed above, below or at the $67 stop price. In a fast market, the execution price could be drastically different than the stop price. A stop limit has two major differences from a stop order. With a stop limit, you are not guaranteed to get an execution. If you do get an execution on your trade, you are guaranteed to get your limit price or better. For example, you place an order to sell stock you own at a stop limit of $67. If the stock drops to $67 or less, the trade becomes a limit order and your trade will only be executed at $67 or better. Glossary All or None (AON) A stipulation of a buy or sell order which instructs the broker to either fill the whole order or don't fill it at all; but in the latter case, don't cancel it, as the broker would if the order were filled or killed. Day Order A buy or sell order that automatically expires if it is not executed during that trading session. Fill or Kill An order placed that must immediately be filled in its entirety or, if this is not possible, totally canceled. Good Til Canceled (GTC) An order to buy or sell which remains in effect until it is either executed or canceled (WellsTrade® accounts have set a limit of 60 days, after which we will automatically cancel the order). Immediate or Cancel An order condition that requires all or part of an order to be executed immediately. The part of the order that cannot be executed immediately is canceled. Limit Order An order to buy or sell a stated quantity of a security at a specified price or at a better price (higher for sales or lower for purchases). Maintenance Call A call from a broker demanding the deposit of cash or marginable securities to satisfy Regulation T requirements and/or the House Maintenance Requirement. This may happen when the customer's margin account balance falls below the minimum requirements due to market fluctuations or other activity. Margin Requirement Minimum amount that a client must deposit in the form of cash or eligible securities in a margin account as spelled out in Regulation T of the Federal Reserve Board. Reg. T requires a minimum of $2,000 or 50% of the purchase price of eligible securities bought on margin or 50% of the proceeds of short sales. Market Makers NASD member firms that buy and sell NASDAQ securities, at prices they display in NASDAQ, for their own account. There are currently over 500 firms that act as NASDAQ Market Makers. One of the major differences between the NASDAQ Stock Market and other major markets in the U.S. is NASDAQ's structure of competing Market Makers. Each Market Maker competes for customer order flow by displaying buy and sell quotations for a guaranteed number of shares. Once an order is received, the Market Maker will immediately purchase for or sell from its own inventory, or seek the other side of the trade until it is executed, often in a matter of seconds. Market Order An order to buy or sell a stated amount of a security at the best price available at the time the order is received in the trading marketplace. Specialists Specialist firms are those securities firms which hold seats on national securities exchanges and are charged with maintaining orderly markets in the securities in which they have exclusive franchises. They buy securities from investors who want to sell and sell when investors want to buy. Stop An order that becomes a market order once the security has traded through the designated stop price. Buy stops are entered above the current ask price. If the price moves to or above the stop price, the order becomes a market order and will be executed at the current market price. This price may be higher or lower than the stop price. Sell stops are entered below the current market price. If the price moves to or below the stop price, the order becomes a market order and will be executed at the current market price. Stop Limit An order that becomes a limit order once the security trades at the designated stop price. A stop limit order instructs a broker to buy or sell at a specific price or better, but only after a given stop price has been reached or passed. It is a combination of a stop order and a limit order. These articles are for information and education purposes only. You will need to evaluate the merits and risks associated with relying on any information provided. Although this article may provide information relating to approaches to investing or types of securities and investments you might buy or sell, Wells Fargo and its affiliates are not providing investment recommendations, advice, or endorsements. Data have been obtained from what are considered to be reliable sources; however, their accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed. Wells Fargo makes no warranties and bears no liability for your use of this information. The information made available to you is not intended, and should not be construed as legal, tax, or investment advice, or a legal opinion.

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