• Pandemic boom and bust figures have faded, leaving room for a "normal" jobs report.
  • Rising oil prices and NFP-fueled Fed tapering expectations offset each other.
  • The Canadian dollar tends to react slowly to data, leveling the playing field for traders.

Trading a jobs report is never easy – and COVID-19 has made it even more erratic. However, the upcoming employment figures from Canada could be an opportunity to trade USD/CAD 

Economists expect Canada to report an increase of 60,000 jobs in September after printing 90,200 in August. Similar to other countries, the northern nation has been extending its recovery yet uncertainty looms. It is unclear where the economy lands. 

However, there are fewer factors skewing the outcome – and the market reaction – are set to make way for a more straightforward reaction. What does that mean? The loonie could rise in response to a better than expected figure and drop if Canada creates fewer jobs 

Here are three reasons to expect a tradeable outcome:

1) Back to normality

As the chart below shows, Canada had its share of massive job destruction and creation around COVID-19.

Source: FXStreet

However, each coronavirus wave has a smaller impact on the economy as businesses and employees learn to adapt. Moreover, the last covid wave – of the highly contagious Delta variant – has hit Canada far less than the US. The main reason is the high vaccination rate in Canada, which is in the world´s top.

A lower load of covid cases means businesses can better plan, making hiring more straightforward and less erratic. 

COVID-19 infections in Canada and the US:

Source: FT

Investors expect fewer unreasonable surprises, leaving room for genuine changes to the labor market more significant and more impactful. 

2) Balanced external factors

As in many cases, Canada's jobs report is released in tandem with America's Nonfarm Payrolls. The US publication tends to shake markets and often impacts USD/CAD more than the labor report from up north. However, this publication is different.

The Federal Reserve has already signaled it would taper its bond-buying scheme in November, leaving only a small window to escape that decision. It would take a disastrous NFP to cause the Fed to rethink its policy change. In all likelihood, the jobs report would cement the decision and support the greenback.

While USD/CAD would benefit from the NFP, another external factor is already dragging it down – oil prices. Prices of Canada's key export have been lagging behind soaring costs of natural gas, but have now joined the rally. The surge of WTI Crude Oil to the highest since 2014 keeps the loonie bid.

All in all, external factors offset each other and leave Canada's jobs report as the final arbiter of USD/CAD's moves. 

3) C$ is a slow mover

Canadians are considered nice-mannered and calm – and their currency tends to mimic the national psyche. Before the pandemic, the C$ tended to react to upbeat jobs by rising and then gradually extending these gains. A disappointing figure would trigger a fall and then further declines. The fading of the pandemic allows these days to return.

Contrary to other currencies where algorithms trigger a reaction at the speed of light, then a remarkable U-turn and then choppy trading, the loonie is steadier – leveling the playing field for retail traders.


Canada is set to report a healthy increase of 60,000 jobs in post-pandemic growth. Several factors suggest the reaction would be straightforward, providing trading opportunities to trade the event. 

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Feed news Join Telegram

Recommended Content

Recommended Content

Editors’ Picks

AUD/USD bulls flirt with 0.7100 with eyes on Aussie Retail Sales, US PCE Inflation

AUD/USD bulls flirt with 0.7100 with eyes on Aussie Retail Sales, US PCE Inflation

AUD/USD holds onto the recently sidelined moves around 0.7100 as bulls and bears jostle over mixed clues heading into the key data on Friday. Also restricting the Aussie prices are downbeat statistics at home and looming economic fears over the largest customer China.


EUR/USD: Bulls are taking control and eye the 1.08 area

EUR/USD: Bulls are taking control and eye the 1.08 area

EUR/USD's market structure is now bullishon the daily chart. Euro's support near 1.0705 could offer a base from which bulls can engage in order to target the 1.08 areas. For the FOMC minutes, the pair was based at the targetted support area and there were prospects of a higher correction from support.


Gold bounces from $1,850, DXY remains soft on soaring market mood

Gold bounces from $1,850, DXY remains soft on soaring market mood

Gold price (XAU/USD) witnessed a minor pullback towards $1,850.00 in its initial trading hours but has bounced back sharply. The precious metal is displaying a balance auction in a range of $1,840.76-1,856.35 from Wednesday.

Gold News

Will Cardano price finally show its cards?

Will Cardano price finally show its cards?

Cardano price is preparing for a retest of $0.80. Still, jumping in early might be too risky. Traders should wait for confirmation signals.

Read more

FXStreet Premium users exceed expectations

FXStreet Premium users exceed expectations

Tap into our 20 years Forex trading experience and get ahead of the markets. Maximize our actionable content, be part of our community, and chat with our experts. Join FXStreet Premium today!