Canada hosts a high-voltage G7 summit: What’s at stake

From June 15 to 17, the leaders of the world's largest economic democracies gather in the Canadian Rockies for a high-stakes G7 Summit. In Kananaskis, in a setting as majestic as it is isolated, Canada hosts this summit against a backdrop of geopolitical fragmentation, heightened trade rivalries and the reshaping of global balances.

The gathering of the leaders of the seven richest countries – and other special guests – comes under the shadow of the tariff war triggered by US President Donald Trump and the threat of a war between Iran and Israel. What’s at stake for the main participants?

Canada: a test presidency for Mark Carney

For its seventh G7 Summit as host country, Canada intends to assert its renewed leadership. Prime Minister Mark Carney, former Governor of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, is focusing on three priorities: global security, digital transition and new economic alliances.

Through this presidency, Carney seeks to reposition Canada as a pivotal player between the major Western powers and emerging economies.

He is also trying to turn the page on past diplomatic tensions, notably with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who was invited to the summit despite fierce internal criticism. The stakes are twofold: to strengthen energy and mining partnerships while restoring coherence to Canadian foreign policy.

United States: Trump's return to the G7 is a wild card

Donald Trump's return to the G7 table is one of the most closely scrutinized aspects of this summit. With his second term in office, the American president arrives with a muscular agenda: threats of tariff hikes, bilateral pressure on Europe and Japan, and skepticism about any multilateral declarations.

Negotiations with Canada on lifting tariffs – in exchange for increased Canadian military spending – could lead to a breakthrough.

But Trump's shadow extends far beyond taxes. On several occasions in recent months, the American president has publicly raised the idea of making Canada the "51st state of the United States", a provocation that has deeply shocked people north of the border.

The episode illustrates the climate of discomfort in which this G7 will take place, even as Trump once again treads Canadian soil, under high protection, by virtue of a special diplomatic exception for convicted foreign heads of state.

Also, the threat of a "G7 minus one" still looms, as it did in 2018, when Trump slammed the door at the last minute. His ambiguous stance on the war in Ukraine and on capping the price of Russian Oil complicates any attempt at consensus.

France: Macron in search of balance

Weakened by an unstable parliamentary majority, Emmanuel Macron hopes to stay the course on support for Ukraine, digital sovereignty and the energy transition. But he will have to navigate between the American agenda, German ambitions, and internal European divergences.

Coordination with Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, will therefore be essential to ensure a coherent European voice on sanctions against Russia.

Germany: Merz, the pragmatist in a minefield

New Chancellor Friedrich Merz arrives in Kananaskis with a reputation for economic pragmatism. His objective: to maintain the West's commitment to Ukraine, while limiting the impact of sanctions on German industry.

He advocates a hard line on Russia, but also concrete progress on European industrial resilience in the face of Chinese supply chains.

United Kingdom: Starmer, the assertive European

Freshly elected, Keir Starmer embodies a break with the post-Brexit era. He wants to rebuild bridges with Europe and multilateral institutions, demonstrating a willingness to cooperate on trade, energy security and the regulation of artificial intelligence.

London also comes with a significant strategic advantage: to date, the United Kingdom is the only G7 country to have signed a bilateral trade agreement with the United States.

Keir Starmer could seek to capitalize on this privileged relationship to increase his weight in G7 economic negotiations, while acting as a mediator between American ambitions and European reluctance.

Italy: Meloni as guardian of Atlantic unity

Hosting the summit in 2024, Giorgia Meloni arrives with experience of the format and the intention of maintaining a firm stance against Moscow, while remaining aligned with Washington. But Rome is keeping an ear to the ground for Beijing and is seeking to spare its exporters.

On issues of migration and Mediterranean security, Rome will likely be calling for greater solidarity between the countries of northern and southern Europe.

Japan: Ishiba on the defensive

Japan's new Prime Minister, Ishiba Shigeru, will attend his first G7 Summit in a tense context with China. Tokyo hopes to obtain guarantees on Indo-Pacific security, while securing agreements on critical minerals, AI and cybersecurity.

Japan also remains very concerned about a possible devaluation of the Japanese Yen (JPY), which the G7 currency talks could influence.

The European Union: fragile unity, active diplomacy

Represented by Ursula von der Leyen and António Costa, the European Union (EU) wants to play a central role in coordinating sanctions against Russia. Still, it must contend with the divergent lines taken by Paris, Berlin and Rome.

On trade, technology and climate, the EU is pushing for firm commitments – but knows that Trump could torpedo any text that is too binding.

Guest countries: between strategic openness and tense diplomacy

The Kananaskis summit welcomes a wide range of non-G7 countries - including India, Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, South Korea, Indonesia, Ukraine and Australia.

These invitations demonstrate Canada's commitment to expanding its dialogue with key powers in the Global South and fostering a coalition dynamic on global issues.

India, despite bilateral tensions with Ottawa, is seen as an essential partner for discussing energy, technology and stability in the Indo-Pacific.

Ukraine is looking for support, particularly from Donald Trump, while Mexico and Canada could start a tripartite dialogue on reforming the USMCA trade agreement.

For countries such as Brazil, South Africa and South Korea, it is also a question of demonstrating their growing role in global governance, at a time when the G7 is trying to remain relevant in the face of the emergence of the BRICS and alternative formats.

For Mark Carney, this "G7+" is an attempt to build bridges in a polarized world.

But this openness also accentuates fault lines: East-West and North-South rivalries, as well as disagreements over global governance, risk overshadowing Canadian ambitions.

A summit to preserve, rather than transform

The Kananaskis G7 isn’t expected to change the world. But against a backdrop of war, trade tensions and climate emergency, it can still serve as a political compass.

For Mark Carney, the challenge will be to maintain dialogue and prevent the format from imploding. For markets and citizens, any signal of stability or cooperation will already be a victory.