BTC/USD Forex Signal

Yesterday’s signals were not triggered as there was no bearish price action at $14,058.

Today’s BTC/USD Signals

Risk 0.75% per trade.

Trades can be taken at any time.

Long Trades

• Go long after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $11,400, or $10,681 but be very cautious.

• Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.

• Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $200 in profit by price.

• Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $200 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

Short Trade

• Go short after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $13,217.

• Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.

• Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $200 in profit by price.

• Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $200 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

BTC/USD Analysis

I wrote yesterday that there were initial signs that the spectacular cryptocurrencies boom may be coming to a major pause, or at least an end. All the major cryptocurrencies were falling in value over recent days, and Bitcoin has fallen the most of all relative to its all-time high price close to $20,000. My fears seem to be well-founded, as we now see Bitcoin falling by more than 15%, Ethereum by more than 18%, and Ripple by more than 24% over the past few hours. This is nothing unusual for cryptocurrencies which seem to be wildly volatile, but it is significant, and it feels like the boom era is truly coming to an end. There is a lot of talk coming from governments and banks about stricter regulations, and a lot of profit taking.

Technically, we saw the supportive trend line break down and then be tested from below, which is a classic bearish set-up. The price has fallen strongly from there, printing new resistance at $13,218. The strong fall wiped out the support level at about $11,800, and at the time of writing the price is bouncing at the next support of $11,400 which may hold. If so, there could be a good long trade opportunity here, but it is worth being very careful before going long – the candles should take some time to form, or make a very strong V-shape first. I have no directional bias.

There is nothing important due today concerning the USD.